BJP ahead of Congress but vote share might be tied: CSDS data

NEWDELHI: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) continues to have an edge over the Congress even though their vote share might be tied at 43 % each, an opinion poll conducted by ABP News and Lokniti-centre for Studies of Developing Societies (CSDS) projected on Monday.

According to the forecast, the BJP is likely to get 91-99 seats, while the Congress may get 78-86 seats in the 182-member state assembly.

Gujarat is slated to go to polls in two phases — on December 9 and 14. Results will be declared on December 18. The latest poll, conducted between November 23 and 30, had a sample size of 3,655 peo- ple, covering 50 assembly constituencies. The first survey, conducted in August, had projected a vote gap of 30% between the BJP and the Congress. The gap, however, came down to 6 percentage points in their October survey. The November poll gave the BJP 113-121 seats, and the Congress 58-64 seats.

The opinion poll also found that Patidar leader Hardik Patel’s popularity came down from 64 % in October to 58 % now. The survey, however, projected the saffron party ahead of the Congress in central Gujarat and in the Patidar stronghold of Saurashtra.

The poll also shows that while the Patidars and Dalits are likely to vote for the Congress, the BJP is likely to bag votes from communities such as the Kolis and the upper castes.

In North Gujarat which has 53 seats, the poll gave the Congress a lead over the BJP. It saw the grand old party making inroads in tribal areas and with traders.

According to figures from ABP TV, 43% traders intend to vote for the Congress, while 40% were likely to choose BJP, as the trading community in the state is unhappy over the roll out of the Goods and Services Tax (GST).

In the Saurashtra-kutch region, which has 54 seats, the Congress would get 39% of the votes, against the BJP’S 45%, the poll survey predicted.

In the 2012 Gujarat polls, the BJP received 47.85 % of the valid votes, while the Congress garnered 38.93%. The BJP had won 115 seats and the Congress 61.