Farm dissent poses huge threat for BJP

issues back on the national radar, the BJP is watching out for the possibility of rural dissatisfaction-fuelled anti-incumbency shaking its formidable rural-support base. Nearly 72.4% of Madhya Pradesh’s population is rural. About 49% of landowning farmers had voted the ruling NDA in the 2014 general election, according to data from Lokniti. The Bjp-led formation had also won the support of a third of landless tenant cultivators.

Across states, falling rural incomes due to a combination of unfavourable global factors, bad weather and unprofitable prices has spawned a new wave of protests. There is a near consensus around two key demands. First, farmers want assured returns that are 1.5 times the cultivation costs that translate into a 50% profit. Second, they want a complete write-off of all farmers’ loans. The first demand isn’t hard to justify — it was, after all, part of the BJP’S official poll manifesto in 2014. The Modi government has also declared that it will double farmers’ income in six years.

“One of our sister organisations in Punjab went to court seeking an implementation of this promise (50% profits). In its response in an affidavit in January 2015, the Modi government has said it was not in a position to do so. This is cheating,” said Shiv Kumar Sharma alias Kakaji, one of the main leaders behind the 10-day Mandsaur agitation and the chief of Rashtriya Kisan Mazdoor Sangaha. He was arrested during the Mandsaur crackdown.

Kakaji was referring to the Centre’s response in February 2015 to a plea filed by the Consortium of Indian Farmers Association. In it, the Centre said a mechanical linkage between MSP and cost of production could be counter-productive. “The Centre said a 50% hike on MSP on cost may distort the market,” Chengal Reddy, the petitioner, told HT. Sharma’s colleague Binod Anand says the organisation has set February 1 as the “deadline” for the government to meet its demands. The next stop: a protest in Delhi’s Jantar Mantar on February 23, he says.

Madhya Pradesh’s farm fortunes began dipping in 2013-14, when farm GDP contracted 1.14% due to a drought. The next year, farm growth rose 4.6% but slowed again to 1.7% in 2015-16. In 2016-17, growth shot up 22.39%, the result of a statistical ‘base effect’ due to poor growth the previous years and a bumper harvest. However, disruptions caused by demonetisation and the implementation of the goods and services tax meant prices crashed.

The state is looking to stem rural angst with a slew of sops. This includes an unprecedented flagship scheme, Mukhya Mantri Bhavantar Bhugtaan Yojana, to directly pay farmers a part of the prices they fail to recover for their produce from the markets, something never tried before in the country. But farmer organisations have made it the main target of their attacks.

The scheme pays only the difference between the prevailing modal price of a crop and what farmers manage to sell for. The modal price of a crop denotes the price level at which a majority of transactions take place. It therefore serves as an average price. The state doesn’t pay the higher minimum support prices, or the floor price, set by the Centre. Farm leaders allege the scheme benefits traders more than farmers. Farmers’ organisations that came together in the aftermath of the Mandsaur protests are preparing for a fresh spell of agitation in the year ahead. Sinha, a detractor of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has promised his support and time to them.

The Gadarwara rally attended by Sinha and former Union farm minister Sompal Shastri, who doesn’t belong to any party now, was called to highlight the plight of farmers nearby whose land was acquired for a power plant.

NEW-AGE TACTICS

The issues may be rooted in agricultural prices but the battle in Madhya Pradesh is a political one. Anand claims they aren’t fighting on partisan lines and it’s “difficult to predict” what “political impact” their movement will have in Madhya Pradesh’s elections. “But leaders of many political parties are in touch with us,” he admitted.

The Harda-based Aam Kisan Unio is however open about bringing about a