Monsoon to be normal, deficit seen in some southern states: forecaster

SKYMET FORECASTS MONSOON RAINFALL TO BE 100% OF THE LONG PERIOD AVERAGE THIS YEAR WITH AN ERROR MARGIN OF +/ 5%

NEWDELHI: Rainfall in the June-toSeptember monsoon season will be normal this year, private weather forecaster Skymet Weather said on Wednesday, in a forecast that should bring cheer not just to farmers dependant on rain-fed irrigation but also governments of states headed for the polls later this year.

Only the southern states, barring Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh, will likely receive deficit rainfall, Skymet added.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) considers it a normal monsoon when rainfall is 96-104% of the 50-year average of 887 mm, also called the Long Period Average (LPA). Skymet forecasts monsoon rainfall to be 100% of the LPA this year with an error margin of +/- 5%.

The south-west monsoon waters about half of the country’s farmland and is crucial for a healthy harvest in a country where two-thirds of the popula- tion depends on agriculture for a livelihood. Widespread farm distress has been reported from parts of the country following a bumper harvest and slump in global commodity prices. After back-to-back droughts in 2014 and 2015, India received normal monsoon rainfall in 2016. Last year, India received 95% of the LPA.

Skymet’s forecast of a normal monsoon is in line with what was indicated in a March bulletin of the IMD that initial conditions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans favoured a normal monsoon.

North-west India is likely to receive normal rainfall, according to the Skymet forecast.