AJAI SAHNI
At least 37 Maoists were killed in two separate encounters in Gadchiroli district of Maharashtra on April 22 and 23. Significantly, at the time of writing, no fatalities have been reported among security forces. Details of these incidents are still hazy. Nevertheless, it is important to recognise that while fatalities in single incidents cause great jubilation or distress — depending on which side you are on — they have little impact on the broader trajectory of a protracted conflict.
It is, indeed, within the context of this trajectory that these incidents acquire their greater, and from a Maoist perspective, potentially devastating, significance; they come in the wake of continuous reverses suffered by Maoists over the past years, both in Gadchiroli and across the wider theatre of their erstwhile dominance — the so-called Red Corridor.
Gadchiroli has been the epicentre of Maoist violence in Maharashtra and, at its peak in 2009, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (www.satp.org) database, at least 86 fatalities were registered in the district, including 52 security force personnel, 23 Maoists and 11 civilians, yielding an adverse security forces:maoist kill ratio of 2.26:1. The current year has recorded 47 Maoist-linked fatalities, including one trooper, one civilian, and 45 Maoists, an overwhelming 1:45 ratio in favour of security forces. Twenty-five fatalities were recorded through 2017, including three security force personnel, seven civilians, and 15 Maoists (a security force-maoist kill ratio of 1:5); adding to 26 fatalities in 2016, including two troopers, 12 civilians, and 12 Maoists (a security force-maoist kill ratio of 1:6).
This trajectory mimics the broad trends in belts across India where Maoists are active. From a peak of 1,180 fatalities in 2010, the number bottomed out at 251 in 2015, including 101 Naxalites,57 security force personnel, and 93 civilians. They rose to 433 in 2016, including 244 Maoists, 66 security force personnel and 123 civilians; and 332 in 2017, including 149 Maoists, 74 security force personnel, and 109 civilians; reflecting the largest increases in Maoist