Delhi-beijing aligning can work to Kabul’s advantage
Central Asia will greatly benefit if the economic interests of the Asian giants were to coincide in Afghanistan
The volatility of the security situation in Afghanistan was once again highlighted on May 31 when more 50 people died in a coordinated double suicide bombing in Kabul and a shooting in the eastern Khost province. The Taliban and Islamic State are now competing with each other, and, in the process, the level of destruction is reaching unprecedented levels.
The attacks are also symbolic of the growing capacity issues facing the country. Less than 60% of Afghanistan is now being controlled by the government forces and as per the latest report of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, the Afghan army and police have 36,000 fewer personnel today than they did last year as a result of desertions and casualties. Recognising its limitations, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani made an effort in February to restart the peace process by offering to recognise the Taliban as a legitimate political group. But the Taliban want direct talks with the United States.
Now, enter China and India with their talk of a joint economic project in Afghanistan. This was reportedly decided at the informal summit in Wuhan on April 27-28 between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping. If this gets operational- ised, it could reshape the geopolitics in and around Afghanistan.
Despite some initial optimism that India and China would find it easy to cooperate in Afghanistan given their shared concerns regarding terrorism, the two nations have been struggling to move forward.
Pakistan has single-handedly wrecked all serious efforts at finding a sustainable solution to lasting peace in Afghanistan. Now with the Belt and Road Initiative being Xi’s pet project and India opposing the China-pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), new ways for engagement are being found. A joint project in Afghanistan will unsettle Pakistan which has been discussing with China the possibility of extending CPEC to Afghanistan.
India-afghan ties’ upward trajectory is underscored by the activation of the India-afghanistan air corridor and the finalisation of a trilateral agreement with Iran over the Chabahar port.
So the idea of partnering with China, which would also like to see a stable and economically-viable Afghanistan with a strong central government, becomes attractive for India. What it demonstrates is some new thinking in New Delhi and Beijing on how to mitigate the costs of the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. But there have been too many false dawns in the past and it remains to be seen if anything of significance will come of this latest idea. The universe is always neutral and all the things labelled by a person as right or wrong are subjective, are only according to an individual’s belief system. Two people born in similar circumstances, and exposed to similar opportunities can have different destinies because of their belief system. Belief systems act as a lens through which a person sees the world, it is what a person believes to be true.
We all have different beliefs and opinions