Closer to poll date, it’s time for mind games in K’taka
IT IS WIDELY BELIEVED IN BJP CIRCLES THAT GOA COULD REPEAT IN KARNATAKA IF PARTY’S TALLY IS LESS THAN
THAT OF THE CONG BUT A COALITION IS POSSIBLE WITH GOWDA’S HELP
NEWDELHI: Election time is speculation time. It’s also the time to play mind games with political rivals and peers within parties. If Narendra Modi declared the Congress would be reduced to being PPP — Punjab-puducherry Party — after the Karnataka polls, Rahul Gandhi claimed Modi wouldn’t be PM after the 2019 polls. Little wonder, then, that the air is thick in Karnataka with countless projections and conspiracy theories.
Let’s first talk about the Congress. A story doing the rounds is about aspirants for the chief minister’s office (other than Siddaramaiah) secretly wishing for a hung Assembly. But why? Well, a fractured verdict will put them in the race; the belief being that HD Deve Gowda of Janata Dal (Secular), or JD(S), won’t support the incumbent, who is his former understudy, and now a sworn rival.
Among those lying in wait to pull off an ambush could be Dalit heavyweights Mallikarjuna Kharge and PCC chief Dr G Parameshwara who lost elections and the CM’S slot in 2013. The third claimant might be state minister DK Shivakumar, an ambitious Vokkaliga whose challenge is weaker on account of income tax and Enforcement Directorate (ED) cases he faces.
The chief minister’s lobby claims to be winning 120-odd seats. But those desirous of a post-election leadership battle quote figures below hundred. Their projections may come true. For the present, they appear to be riding on fond hopes that can be realised only through external intervention, not from moves within, given Siddaramaiah’s primacy within the party.
The CM isn’t hamstrung any more by the “outsider tag” the loyalists used in 2013 as a reminder of his JD(S) past to question his ascendency in the Congress. In fact, the ongoing campaign is a contest between the CM and the PM. Amid their high voltage face-off, BS Yeddyurappa seems kind of benched or getting reduced to defending Ballari’s infamous Reddy brothers.
It’s widely believed in BJP circles that Goa could repeat in Karnataka if the party’s tally is less than that of the Congress but a coalition regime is possible with Deve Gowda’s help. Yeddyurappa could then be expended in post-poll machinations to accommodate the JD (S), with or without conceding to it the CM’S office.
Those looking for such an opening are leaders motivated by the Himachal experience in which PK Dhumal lost his seat and the CM’S office.
The gainer was Jairam Thakur, a Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (Rss)-blessed wild card entry. His wife incidentally is from Shimoga, Yeddyurappa’s parliamentary constituency in central Karnataka.
The BJP’S Lingayat face may not personally lose. But not being able to replicate the 2008 numbers would be loss enough. His detractors are the very people who had a hand in cutting short his stint amid graft allegations after the BJP’S victory a decade ago. Thereafter, the state saw two more chief ministers from the saffron stock: Sadanand Gowda and Jagdish Shettar.
The three-chief ministers-infive-years record isn’t a badge of honour. It’s often used by the Congress and the JD (S )to punch holes in the BJP’S assertions of stable and clean governance.
The third conspiracy theory is about t he power struggle between Deve Gowda’s sons, the younger HD Kumaraswamy and the elder HD Revanna, whose son, Prajwal, was denied a ticket to contest by Kumaraswamy.
In private conversations, Siddaramaiah has told friends that he can deal with Deve Gowda, but not with Kumaraswamy. In that context, his good equation with Revanna is cited to conjure up a split in the JD(S) to fetch the numbers he may need in a hung House. Revanna lacks his younger brother’s mass connect but is his father’s favourite.
The Jd(s)theory seems farfetched from the Congress’s perspective as the BJP has superior resources to achieve such ends. But probability is the name of the game in politics. Realistically speaking, the Congress’s tally could dip if Deve Gowda’s party does better in the Old Mysore area. The contest there is primarily between the JD(S) and the Congress. In 1994, Deve Gowda won 70-odd seats (out of the Janata Dal’s tally of 115) from the region on which he’s again heavily banking.
In sum, protagonists in all parties will be counting their blessings if the numbers they have are short of a majority. Chamraja is an assembly segment in Mysuru district, one of the 224 seats in the state assembly. While all parties strive to win every seat, the Janata Dal (Secular), or JD (S), is making an extra effort in Chamraja, as it is a prestige battle for its leaders. No, none of the top members of the party are contesting the seat. Sitting legislator Vasu is from the Congress while the BJP has fielded L Nagendra, the same candidate as last time. The reason why the seat has received extra attention is simple. The JD(S) candidate is KS Rangappa, a controversial former vicechancellor of the University of Mysore.
Rangappa only joined JD(S) recently after retiring from his government job. But Rangappa’s daughter is married to JD (S) leader HD Deve Gowda’s grandson, making them close relatives. So the JD(S) wants to ensure that the in-laws of the first family don’t face any electoral setbacks. However, they are facing a tough challenge in the form of Harish Gowda, the former head of JD(S)’S Mysuru city unit who was eyeing the seat, has rebelled, and is contesting as an independent.