How JD(S) matters outside southern Karnataka as well
side the south — where JD(S) won 20 seats but played spoiler in 41 (see Chart 3). This implies that there are a large reservoir of votes that the AHINDA strategy can plausibly bring into the Congress fold from JD(S) to stave off a stronger BJP than 2013.
Indeed, we’ve found evidence that it is working. If one of the three components of Siddaramaiah’s AHINDA strategy is likely to band together unanimously, it is the Muslim vote. There is perceived bonhomie between JD(S) and BJP this time and this is acutely understood by the Muslim population across regions. Campaigning by the likes of UP CM Yogi Adityanath has helped consolidate the Muslim vote towards Congress. “We must ensure at all costs that our Karnataka does not become like UP — where such communalism is common,” explained a Muslim rice trader in Honnali town of Davangere district.
Compared to the Muslim question, Dalit voting presents a much more fractured picture. In a village in Haveri district, a middleaged Dalit farmer told us that although he appreciated many of Siddaramaiah’s welfare schemes he was worried about local power structures. “Siddaramaiah is a Kuruba leader, and can be very partial to Kurubas. Since there are many Kurubas in the village, if BJP wins here we might be able to reduce their influence.” To add to the complication, there is enmity with another nearby Dalit community. “They (the other Dalit community) think that we have come up through reservations at their expense. If they feel that we are going to vote for the BJP, they would definitely vote for the Congress,” he said.
By contrast, both young and middle-aged Dalit voters in Bhadravati said they would be firmly behind Congress. “The JD(S) is a party of Gowdas, and Siddaramaiah is not a casteist leader. Under him, Muslims, Dalits and a few of the backward class communities have had peace and good relations.” In this election, Congress needs to win over non-vokkaliga voters from the JD(S) to score a big victory. An effective AHINDA consolidation is exactly what will guarantee such an outcome.