NEELANJAN SIRCARIRCAR AND PRANAV KUTTAIAH

BENGALURU:“Deve Gowda is everything to us,” explains an elderly man in a village near a lake in Channarayapattana taluk dominated by the Vokkaliga (Gowda) community. HD Deve Gowda, the leader of the powerful Vokkaliga community in Karnataka, is the founder of the Janata Dal (Secular) [JD(S)]. So strong is his hold in South Karnataka (and that of his son, HD Kumaraswamy) that voters have nary an opinion on demonetisation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, or much of anything else.

But it would be wrong to say that JD(S) only does well in South Karnataka (where the Vokkaliga are numerous). Of the 40 seats JD(S) won in 2013, 20 were from outside South Karnataka — where the JD(S) has been effective in leveraging local patronage networks to win non-vokkaliga votes. Congress chief minister Siddaramaiah is well aware that if he is to return to power, he will have to significantly eat into the non-vokkaliga votes of JD(S). Congress politician Devaraj Urs, the last chief minister to secure re-election (in 1978), famously constructed the AHINDA (a Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes and Dalits) coalition to win the election. Siddaramaiah is trying to reconstruct this coalition of disparate groups by pointing to a number of popular welfare schemes he created.

To understand the impact JD(S) has on the electoral system, we characterised the number of seats won by JD(S) and the number of seats in which JD(S) plays “spoiler” by region. We defined JD(S) as a spoiler when it finished third or lower, as compared to Congress and the combined vote share of BJP and KJP (since BS Yeddyurappa has returned to the party), but has greater vote share than the margin between Congress and a combined BJP/KJP. In effect, these are seats in which JD(S) had no chance of winning but had enough votes to push the second place party over the top. While in the south, JD(S) wins many seats and is spoiler in very few, the situation is reversed out-