Why strategic voting was vital in Karnataka
The BJPJD( S) strategic alliance has ceased to exist, but the Congressjd( S) one is on shaky ground
The alacrity with which the JD(S) and the Congress got together to stake a claim to form the government in Karnataka may well have surprised the BJP. But the coalition has had no luck so far. At the moment, the BJP seems to have the upper hand. It is not just that the Congress has been slow to react in recent state elections, but there is also sufficient reason to believe that the JD(S) had made common ground with the BJP during the campaign. The success of this strategic alliance contributed in no small way to the Congress being trounced, losing well over a third of its seats, despite seeing an increase in its vote share from the previous assembly elections.
The most obvious cases of the strategic alliance were in constituencies in which the three-party race was converted into a straight fight against the Congress. This may have been easier in some regions in which the JD(S) did not have a presence, as in the coastal districts. The intensity of this conflict may have been enhanced by communal polarisation. But the region has been communally polarised for decades, and one of only three Congress successes in the region was a Muslim candidate in Mangalore, a constituency where Muslims are far from being a majority. A more likely influence on the shift to the BJP in coastal Karnataka is the fact that the region is seeing a massive movement out of agriculture. The BJP abandoned its traditional support among the agriculturalists, and supported castes that had pioneered the movement out of agriculture. The new candidates the BJP put up were not as well known as the stalwarts the Congress chose, but they represented a change in the region and won.
The reduction of three-party contests to straight fights was more strategic in old Mysore. The narrative here was marked by a consolidation of the dominant castes within. We have within us a gateway to peace, joy, and happiness. However, to access and enjoy it we need to meditate, by sitting in silence and staying focused within.
For this, we should — Set priorities: Set a time for meditation. Allot time throughout the rest of the day for other activities. This helps us preserve our meditation time only for that purpose.
Have a special place for meditation: By getting into the habit of concentrating on meditation when sitting in a special spot, we learn to put aside other distractions. against Siddaramaiah. Women in a road show of the JD(S) candidate who beat the then CM by a huge margin were angry that Siddaramaiah spoke “arrogantly” to people of the upper castes. The BJP has been trying with some success to make inroads into this region, but strategically stepped back and allowed the JD(S) to take on the Congress.
The strategic voting of the parties was not confined to generating straight fights. The JD(S) was willing to put up as third candidates those who had been discarded by the Congress. These candidates were not always strong enough to challenge the main contenders but took away enough Congress votes to make things easier for the BJP.
That this strategic, if quiet, electoral alliance between the BJP and the JD(S) did not take the former beyond the half-way mark had much to do with the strategic voting by castes and communities. The JD(S) had an alliance with Asaduddin Owaisi’s MIM and put up Muslim candidates in constituencies where the Congress had strong candidates from the same community. But the community, by and large, chose the Muslim candidate more likely to win and stood by him.
It is not that the BJP always lost from castes and communities voting strategically. It was the major beneficiary of the Lingayat decision to do so. The Lingayats were in the midst of internal debate about the Siddaramaiah government’s decision to seek recognition for them as a separate religion. The numerically small but otherwise powerful Veerashaiva mutts wanted to remain within Hinduism, while the numerically larger but far less influential mutts of the socially and economically weaker Lingayats were open to a separate religion. As is its wont,the community went by consensus and chose to by and large vote for the BJP. But it also made it clear that the debate on a separate religion status for Lingayats is far from over. The Lingayat minister in the Siddaramaiah Cabinet who led the demand for a separate religion won quite comfortably, despite some Veerashaiva mutts openly campaigning against him.
The trouble with strategic voting is that the value of the alliance may not remain after the results are out. With the JD(S) seeing the possibility of heading a government despite being the only one of the three major parties that saw a decline in its vote share, it lost no time in staking its claim with all of 37 MLAS and the support of a larger, but defeated, Congress. At the same time, the fact that the main enemy on the ground for the JD(S) is the Congress, and not the BJP, could well change strategic considerations once again in the not-too-distant future.
THE REDUCTION OF THREEPARTY CONTESTS TO STRAIGHT FIGHTS WAS CLEAR IN OLD MYSORE. THE NARRATIVE WAS MARKED BY A CONSOLIDATION OF THE DOMINANT CASTES AGAINST SIDDARAMAIAH
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