BJP failed to...

But despite the alliance, the BJP felt that it had a natural claim to power. Two views are visible in the party on this issue in retrospect. The leader quoted above said with 104 seats, it was the BJP’S responsibility to demand that popular mandate be respected, and this was a party which did not cede power. “We felt we would easily get the numbers. How could we not stake claim?” But a second functionary said, “Maybe we should have let Congress and JD S) form the government and told people from day one that we had been cheated.” That was the second mistake.

The third setback for the BJP was the Congress’s decision to legally challenge governor Vajubhai Vala’s invitation to Yeddyuruppa and Chief Justice of India Dipak Mishra’s decision to constitute a bench for an urgent hearing. “We were happy that the swearing-in was not held back. But the legal challenge was the turning point because eventually the SC gave us only a day (to prove our majority). One day was just not enough to win over enough MLAS from the other side, especially when they were inaccessible,” said a second BJP leader.

The fourth miscalculation was that the party severely underestimated the Congress. “We did not think that the Congress would be able to keep its MLAS together, that they would keep them in locations where we could not reach them. The Congress was able to convince its flock that they will form the government. That confidence helped them retain support. In other states, we have often been able to play on this inevitability that we will form the government,” the second leader added.

The BJP also hoped that once Yeddyurappa had been sworn in as chief minister he could, with the help of the Lingayat mutt leaders in the state, be able to convince Lingayat members of the Congress to switch. That never happened. Meanwhile, it seemed as if everyone in the BJP who had a connection to someone in the Congress was reaching out; the Congress released a rash of audio recordings, purportedly of these discussions in progress, although the authenticity of these needs to be established.

It was this mix of factors -- the failure to anticipate and prevent a Congress-jd(s) alliance; the decision to stake claim despite not having the majority; the challenge of preserving their own set of MLAS while winning over opposition MLAS within 48 hours; and the inability to do so despite incentives -- that finally convinced the party leadership that the battle was lost.

But the BJP believes that despite losing the battle, it may still win the 2019 war in the state. “The message is straightforward. We have been cheated. People’s wishes have been subverted. This is a fragile government. We will be a very strong opposition. The aim is a sweep in the Lok Sabha now,” said the second functionary. The setback for now however is real. Does it mark the end of the perception of its invincibility?

Sanjay Kumar of the Centre for Study of Developing Societies said, “Karnataka does not mark the end of the notion that BJP is electorally invincible but it marks the end of the notion that irrespective of whether they win or lose, they will form the government.” The whole idea, Kumar argued, that by using money and power, you could win MLAS has received a jolt. “They couldn’t correctly assess the mood of the electorate, which may not question the credibility of the PM or the functioning of the government but does not like the highhandedness and these tactical short cuts that the party adopts to win power at all costs. This was their miscalculation.”

Milan Vaishnav, political scientist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said, “Anytime you fail to form the government, it is a setback. The BJP has reason to be pleased with its performance: it significantly improved on its 2013 showing. However, despite calling on myriad levers of power, it could not win the necessary numbers. In its quest for power, it also compromised its integrity. Is the party “with a difference” just a different party?” He added the invincibility of the BJP has been punctured before, in Delhi, Bihar, and the UP bypolls. “But the timing of this setback could not be worse as the pivot to the general election has begun.” Karnataka,” Yeddyurappa said in the assembly.

Yeddyurappa’s resignation without a vote in the assembly was a throwback to 1996 when Atal Bihari Vajpayee resigned without his 13-day-old government facing a scheduled confidence vote in the Lok Sabha.

The BJP has faced other political embarrassments since storming back to power at the Centre in 2014, notably the defeat in the 2015 Bihar and Delhi elections.in Bihar, it returned to power after Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) broke away from its alliance partners and tied up with the BJP, a former ally, in 2017.

In the abortive bid for power in Karnataka, however, it overplayed its hand. Political analyst Narendar Pani said it was the BJP’S brusqueness that had resulted in its loss of face in the state. “The BJP had got a moral victory. But the way they went about the whole affair, they managed to help the Congress convert a loss into a victory,” he said.

On Saturday, the Karnataka assembly convened at 11am after the Congress and the JD(S) withdrew their demand for the removal of BJP leader KG Bopaiah as pro-tem speaker to oversee the trust vote.

Half an hour earlier, the Supreme Court had begun hearing a petition against Bopaiah’s appointment on grounds that by convention, the senior-most lawmaker serves as pro-tem speaker. The court said that to decide on Bopaiah’s appointment, he would have to be heard first and that would mean delaying the trust vote, scheduled to be held by 4pm.

“Law can’t direct the governor to appoint a particular person as pro-tem speaker. Unless convention becomes legal norm, it can’t be enforced by court,” the court said. The Congress said it did not press for the replacement of Bopaiah after receiving assurances that the trust vote proceedings would be broadcast live to ensure transparency.

Meanwhile, the Congress released an audio tape in which CM Yeddyurappa is purportedly heard trying to lure its MLA BC Patil with the promise of a ministerial berth if he backed the BJP government. The BJP, however, rejected the charge, calling the tape the job of “mimicry artistes” and the “dirty tricks department” of the Congress.

In Delhi, senior Congress leader Kapil Sibal took a dig at PM Modi over alleged attempts to buy lawmakers. “The PM keeps saying na khaunga, na khane dunga (will neither indulge in corruption nor allow it). He should also say na kharidunga na kharidne dunga (will neither buy, nor let anyone be bought).”

Yeddyurappa, 75, became Karnataka CM for the first time in October 2007 in a BJP-JD(S) coalition government. He lasted in the post for over a month, when the JD(S) withdrew support and his government fell in November 2007. He became CM for the second time after the BJP came to power for the first time in south India on its own in the May 2008 mid-term assembly election, riding on a sympathy wave over the JD (S) “betrayal”. He had to resign three years later, in July 2011, after the Lokayukta indicted him for alleged corruption in a mining scam. Yeddyurappa said the Congress had hatched a conspiracy to subvert the people’s mandate. “They {Congress and JD (S)} kept accusing each other, using the most filthy language, which was all reported by the media,” he said. Confirming the Congress and JD(S) parties’ allegations that the BJP had contacted their MLAS, he said, “It is true that I asked MLAS to vote according to their conscience, spoke to some people and gave assurances.”

Former CM Siddaramaiah said, “He has admitted on the floor of the house that they approached our MLAS. He is the most corrupt leader in the state.”