The Us-taliban talks should not worry India
In the meantime, Delhi should do nothing that would allow Islamabad to blame it in case things go wrong
Afghanistan is the modern equivalent of the fable of the “six blind men of Hindustan”. The US and the Taliban talked to each other at Qatar with the former represented by a senior diplomat, Alice Wells. This development wasn’t foreseen by analysts as the US’S declared policy has is that such talks must be led by Kabul.
In retrospect, the first portends that change were inevitable was the unprecedented declaration of ceasefire by both the government and the Taliban, a first for the latter since hostilities began 16 years ago. Stepped-up American armed support gave Afghan security forces greater ability to resist the Taliban offensive across the country. As a result, the Taliban has not gained territory despite its change in tactics targeting district administrative centres and a provincial capital (Farah City).
Ghani’s present offer of ceasefire comes in the background of Taliban’s direct assault on Ghazni, located on the KabulKandahar highway and is the gateway to unstable provinces of the South East. The attack was repelled after a week’s sustained counter-attack by Afghan security forces supported by US airpower. Over 150 security men lost their lives. There was evidence that the attackers came from Pakistan, with Afghan allegations of direct Pakistani army involvement. That the injured have been treated in hospitals in Pakistan has not been denied, with the Pakistani army blaming alleged intra-taliban fighting in Afghanistan for it. Ghani called upon General Bajwa to prevent cross-border attacks. He also invited Imran Khan to visit Afghanistan.there is now general acceptance in Afghan and US circles that the road to peace in Afghanistan runs through Rawalpindi, the headquarters of the Pakistani army. China’s initiative in convening trilateral dialogue bringing together Afghanistan, China and Pakistan indicated seriousness on the part of Kabul to bring Islamabad on board the peace process. Whether the resultant Afghanistan-pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity will deliver is open to debate.
The last few months also saw an unusual grassroots peace march that began in Helmand’s capital city of Lashkar Gah in March after a suicide attack at a wrestling match that killed 14 persons. After seeming to flag, it revived when suicide attacks targeting civilians surged across the country. The 600 km march reached Kabul on June 18, called upon the government and the Taliban to cease fighting, enter into negotiations and also said that foreign troops should leave Afghanistan (the last was seen as a sop to the Taliban, which did not react to the march).
The peace march and mutual ceasefire was facilitated by a nationwide consultation of the national ulema council involving over 5,000 mullahs. It is estimated that the Taliban have killed hundreds of ulema for declaring that the war in Afghanistan was not jihad. Meanwhile, Indonesia called a three country meeting of ulema, from Afghanistan, Indonesia and Pakistan. Though the Taliban refused to participate, the declaration at this May meeting helped develop the alternative narrative of peace. The Afghanistan National Ulema Council held a two-day national consultation on June 4,5 that was significant for its inclusiveness — besides the dominant Hanafi School, there were representatives from the Deobandis, Salafis, Azharis, Islamists, Sufis and Shias. Though the site was attacked with some causalities, the meeting denounced suicide bombings and the bloodshed in Afghanistan.
Ashraf Ghani’s declaration of a nine-day ceasefire came three days after this, and, most unusually, the Taliban declared a shorter three-day ceasefire. The Islamic State-khorasan didn’t join in, and launched a suicide attack in Nangarhar where the two sides were supposed to have been celebrating Eid together; its reach, however, is limited to parts of three provinces only.
Even as momentum for peace has been building up, violence levels have not come down. The attack on an electoral registration camp in a Hazara (Shia) suburb of Kabul that killed 60 people is symptomatic of this. Similarly, the Taliban’s Spring Offensive saw coordinated attacks across the country. And the number of direct targeted attacks on civilians in 2018 has doubled over 2017, particularly targeting the electoral registration process and the Shia minority.
Will the combinations of all these factors help nudge the Taliban and other armed groups towards peace? Possibly, if the Pakistani army plays along. Prior to the Qatar meeting between the US and the Taliban, US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, talked to Pakistan’s army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa over the phone in early June. In hindsight, other statements by the US indicated that the two sides were moving towards a common understanding on Afghanistan.
These developments should not perturb India. Peace in Afghanistan is in India’s interest. The Taliban has said that it regards India as a friend and development partner of Afghanistan. History also suggests that whosoever rules Kabul tries to assert Afghanistan’s sovereignty and not allow Pakistan to dominate it politically or militarily. In the meantime, India should do nothing that would allow Pakistan to blame it in case things do not go as per plan.
Will the Us-taliban talks lead to peace in Afghanistan? Or will it be like the Paris peace accord that allowed the US to exit Vietnam, got everybody a Nobel Peace Prize, but didn’t result in peace?
RECENT HISTORY SUGGESTS THAT WHOSOEVER RULES KABUL TRIES TO VEHEMENTLY ASSERT AFGHANISTAN’S SOVEREIGNTY AND NOT ALLOW PAKISTAN TO DOMINATE IT POLITICALLY OR MILITARILY