IMD: Monsoon withdrawal may begin by Sept 25

PUNE: The withdrawal of the south-west monsoon from the North of India may begin only after September 25 as rainfall predictions in Punjab,haryana and some parts of the Rajasthan, between September 20 and 22, are likely to delay its retreat, according to the India meteorological department (IMD).

According to AK Srivastava, head, climate monitoring and analysis group, IMD Pune, signs of weakening of monsoon are showing as there is reduced rainfall over the north-western states. However “complete withdrawal” of monsoon can begin only after September 25, said Srivastava.

“Rainfall pattern is subdued all over India specifically in north and west. There will be rainfall in Punjab,haryana and some parts of the Rajasthan between September 20 and 22, following which conditions will start developing for the monsoon’s withdrawal. By Septem- ber 25 we can see complete withdrawal of monsoon from India,” said Srivastava.

According to the met office, a western disturbance may be responsible for rainfall activity over north India in between September 20 to 22, which could delay monsoon’s withdrawal.

Analysing monsoon data from over the last few decades shows that withdrawal of monsoon from North-west India can begin in between September 1 to 5, scientists highlight that it was delayed over the time because of delayed entry and effect of international climate change. Depression over the Bay of Bengal last week is also responsible for rainfall over north-western states in next year.

According to the weather forecast, a low pressure area is likely to develop over North-west Bay of Bengal around September 18, which will bring rainfall over Odisha, Chhattisgarh and parts of Central and peninsular India. However, intensity of rainfall is not expected to be high and reduce subsequently.