What’s fuelling BJP’S dominance?
POLITICAL HEGEMONY In electoral terms, the Bharatiya Janata Party has become the central pole around which politics revolves. The decisive singleparty parliamentary majority it earned in 2014 — coupled with an impressive string of state election triumphs over the past four years — arguably represents a critical juncture in the evolution of India’s party system. However, the BJP’S emerging hegemony should not be conflated with electoral invincibility. As recent elections have demonstrated in states such as Bihar, Delhi and Karnataka, the party is fallible
analysis, the NDA will probably not achieve an outright majority until at least 2024. Of course, any predictive analysis of this type is invariably based on a number of uncertain assumptions. Suffice it to say that, with its recent gains, the BJP is in the strongest position it has ever been in the Rajya Sabha. If it is able to corral support from non-aligned parties, it would be positioned to enact legislative changes by a simple majority. However, constitutional amendments, which require a two-thirds majority, would still need broad, cross-party consensus.
A SHOCK TO THE POLITICAL SYSTEM
The implications of this reshaped landscape for the political system at large are several-fold.
First, the BJP’S rapid pickup of states will provoke opportunistic alliances forged by desperate opposition parties. Indeed, that process has already begun. In recent by-elections in Uttar Pradesh, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party — bitter rivals that have vied for political dominance for a few decades — set aside their differences to unite in a successful effort to defeat the BJP. Other such marriages of convenience will likely arise in the run-up to 2019.
Second, the Congress faces two somewhat contradictory objectives as it looks ahead. Its first goal is to stem its electoral decline. And its second goal is to build up its emaciated party organisation. Unfortunately for party leaders, the two are in tension. In order to improve the party’s short-term fortunes in states with multiparty competition, the party has decided to forge alliances with key regional players. However, this likely means it will struggle to reclaim political territory it cedes to others. The party’s decision to form an eleventh-hour coalition government with the Janata Dal (Secular) after the May 2018 Karnataka assembly elections is a harbinger of things to come.
Third, the BJP has not been universally successful in expanding its footprint. India’s eastern seaboard (stretching from West Bengal in the north to Tamil Nadu in the south) remains relatively immune to the BJP’S charms. The party has placed significant emphasis on making fresh inroads in precisely these states in the coming election. BJP leaders hope that gains in these states could compensate for potential losses in states it swept in 2014 — a feat that is difficult to replicate.
Fourth and finally, the BJP’S hegemonic status cannot be easily separated from Modi’s own popularity. In nearly all states where the BJP has come to power since 2014, it has done so without formally projecting a CM candidate. Instead, it has campaigned on Modi’s own standing. This works well when the prime minister polls better than his party, but the time might come when Modi’s star dims. In May 2017, according to data collected by Lokniti, 44% of Indians named Modi as their preferred prime minister. One year later, that share had fallen to 34%. To be fair, in May 2014, when the BJP earned its historic general election victory, 36% of Indians surveyed named Modi as their top choice. So Modi has not lost much ground compared to four years ago, but if this percentage continues to drop further, it would ring alarm bells within the BJP.
The Congress party under former prime minister Indira Gandhi banked on a similar strategy during her heyday in the 1970s and early 1980s. The long-term fallout of this strategy is borne out by the data presented here. Today’s hegemonic force in Indian politics would do well to learn the lessons of its predecessor if it wishes to avoid a similar fate.