MS Dhoni: The elephant in the room
NUMBERS DON’T LIE Once a lethal finisher, exskipper’s struggles as a batsman is a worry ahead of the 2019 World Cup
LONDON: Although India won the Asia Cup, their tie against Afghanistan and narrow win against Bangladesh in the final encapsulated the problem with their ODI team. India have arguably the world’s strongest top three (Shikhar Dhawan, Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli) and four frontline bowlers (Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Jasprit Bumrah, Yuzvendra Chahal and Kuldeep Yadav) but their struggling middle order is compromising the brilliance of both.
Since the 2015 World Cup, India have given 10 different players at least 10 innings at positions four to seven - the most of any team in this period. Despite this they have been unable to find a middle order that can capitalise on the excellence of the top three: since October, 2017 only Sri Lanka’s numbers four to seven have a lower run rate than India’s 4.82 runs per over (RPO). On slow pitches in the UAE that drop off nearly cost India the Asia Cup; on flat pitches in England next year it could cost them the World Cup.
In an unstable middle order, one constant has been MS Dhoni. He’s played 65 of India’s 68 matches since the World Cup – the most by any Indian player, and with a dismissal rate of 52.4 has largely been a stabilising presence. However, in a team like India’s—where the top order regularly provide solid platforms —scoring rate is more important than dismissal rate, and here Dhoni has struggled badly, scoring at just 4.89 RPO, significantly less than the rest of India’s players, who have scored at 5.52 RPO.
Dhoni is an ODI great, and brings vast experience and proven wicket-keeping, but if India want to resolve their middle-order problems in time for the next World Cup, then Dhoni’s position should be under scrutiny.
NO LONGER EXPLOSIVE
Dhoni’s batting brilliance in ODIS before the 2015 World Cup was built on playing himself in before exploding in the death overs, increasing his run rate from 4.53 to 7.85. But in recent years, Dhoni has taken longer to get going, and when he has got going he hasn’t been nearly as destructive.
Since the last World Cup, Dhoni has scored at just 4.11 RPO in the middle overs - well below the rest of India’s players in the phase who have scored at 5.52 RPO – and he has not caught up in the death overs, scoring at 7.15 RPO, almost the same as the rest of India’s players (7.14 RPO). More recently this problem has become more pronounced. Since the 2017 Champions Trophy, Dhoni’s run rate in the middle overs has fallen to 3.65 and at the death he’s managed just 6.75. This has always put pressure on his team mates; in the past he had the ability to alleviate it himself but increasingly that doesn’t appear to be the case.
Shot-type analysis from before and after the 2015 World Cup shows there has been no significant change in how he is approaching his innings with his attacking shot percentage remaining at 39% and his rotating shot percentage increasing fractionally. What has changed is the effectiveness of his attacking shots. Since the World Cup, his attacking shot run rate has fallen by 0.23 RPO in the middle overs and by a huge 1.37 RPO in the death overs. Dhoni isn’t batting differently; he just doesn’t appear to be as good as he used to be. The 2018 Ipl—where he scored 455 runs at 9.03 Rpo—rekindled hopes he might rediscover his power-hitting prowess but since then he’s not managed to replicate it in ODIS.
One solution to Dhoni’s declining power, power-hitting would be for him to bat more positively in the middle overs to leave him with less ground to make up at the death but this path appears to have been blocked by his declining record against spin. Dhoni’s run rate against spin has fallen from 4.66 before the 2015 World Cup to 3.97, with 56% of his deliveries being dots. Only two players—richie Berrington of Scotland and H Shahid of Afghanistan score more slowly against spin in this time. Teams are becoming wise to Dhoni’s weakness: in 2018, 45% of his balls faced have been from spinners, up from 35% in 2017.
KEEPING STILL SOLID
Dhoni does offer more than just batting. Kohli is captain but Dhoni is often seen marshalling the field and lends experience and tactical nous. Dhoni’s wicketkeeping is highly regarded and this is supported by Cricviz’s fielding analysis which shows him to be one of the world’s best keepers, contributing approximately 1.30 runs per match more than the average wicket-keeper.
According to Cricviz Match Impact—a performance evaluation tool for ODI cricket which evaluates performance compared to an average player in the same situation—ms Dhoni has contributed +0.70 runs per match since the last World Cup. That is less than Kohli (+14.1), Dhawan (+10.6), Rohit (+8.0), Ambati Rayudu (+6.8), Hardik Pandya (+3.6), Yuvraj Singh (+2.6), Kedar Jadhav (+2.5), Ajinkya Rahane (+2.4) and Dinesh Karthik (+0.9). India’s only frontline batsmen who have contributed less than Dhoni since the World Cup are KL Rahul (-2.3), Suresh Raina (-4.0) and Manish Pandey (-4.5). In 2018, Dhoni’s returns have been even worse: across 10 matches his average batting impact is just -3.50 runs per match - only 11 players in the world have contributed less. The positive influence of Dhoni’s keeping lifts his value since the last World Cup to +2.0 runs per match and the addition of his strategic influence is perhaps just enough for him to hang onto his place—but certainly not enough to put it beyond doubt.
Dhoni has been a great ODI batsman and to write him off would be foolish but it would be equally foolish to ignore his failings. Dhoni won India a World Cup in 2011 but that doesn’t mean he can’t lose them one in 2019. The arrival of Rishabh Pant offers India an alternative wicketkeeper batsman and with Rahul pushing hard for a spot as well, it is time for Dhoni to win the part.
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