HAND ON HEARTLAND How Congress led by Rahul turned it around in 3 states
SAFFRON JOLT Setbacks a worry for BJP; Modi factor can’t overcome ground realities GAME ON FOR 2019 Victories in Rajasthan, MP, C’garh make Cong formidable contender OPPOSITION UNITY Parties widely hail the verdict, will be more willing to ally nationwide
NEWDELHI: In a dramatic turnaround in Indian politics, the Congress — after a series of electoral losses since 2013 — on Tuesday defeated the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in three crucial heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh, in what were largely straight bipolar contests. As he prepares to install his party’s chief ministers in Jaipur, Bhopal and Raipur, Congress president Rahul Gandhi will go into the 2019 Lok Sabha elections with renewed energy and morale, and with greatly enhanced bargaining power as he stitches together a ‘Mahagathbandhan’, or Grand Alliance, against the Narendra Modi-led BJP.
On course to win only 16 seats (it was leading in nine that were yet to be declared till 11pm), the BJP suffered a big defeat in Chhattisgarh. The Congress won or was leading in 67 seats in the house of 90. Madhya Pradesh turned out to be a cliffhanger, and to the credit of chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the BJP, after 15 years in power, fell short of the majority mark by six seats. The Congress won or was leading in 114 in MP, which has 230 legislators. In Rajasthan, the Congress won, as was widely expected. It had 99 seats on its own and 100 along with its ally, Rashtriya Lok Dal, in the house of 200 legislators (election for one seat was postponed after the death of a candidate).
Congress leader Kamal Nath wrote to Madhya Pradesh governor Anandiben Patel late in the evening. The Congress has “emerged the single largest party with majority support” and “all the independents have in addition assured support to the Congress party,” he said in a letter staking claim to form the next government. Four independents had either won or were leading at the time.
The disturbing news for the Congress came from the south, where the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) cruised to a massive victory crushing the Maha Kootami stitched together by Gandhi and Andhra Pradesh chief minister N Chandrababu Naidu, and from the North-east, where it lost its only government in the region in Mizoram.
But the big takeaway of the election was what appeared to be rising disillusionment with the BJP governments, both at the Centre and the state, for their economic performance. NEWDELHI: Never write the obituary of a party. Or a leader. And never write the obituary of a party which is 133 years old, and a leader who belongs to a family which has produced three prime ministers.
Never also underestimate the ability of the Indian electorate to throw up surprises.
The Congress is back, winning the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. And it is back in the region where it was most deeply vulnerable. If there is a pattern in this set of elections, here are five factors Congress got right.
Ironically, or perhaps appropriately, those are the same factors the BJP has got right since it embarked on its winning spree since 2014.
The first is leadership. This was always Narendra Modi’s forte. What changed?
Rahul Gandhi got it right — not because he won the election on his own steam but because a leader has to take the right decisions. He took the right decisions in Madhya Pradesh. The state president was the old, but the resourceful, Kamal Nath who knew how to rev up an organisation. Jyotiraditya Scindia was the most popular of all leaders across regions and demographics. Digvijay Singh knew the state organisation inside out but was kept in the background because of his perceived public unpopularity. In Rajasthan, Ashok Gehlot was most popular. Sachin Pilot worked hard, and rebuilt the organisation. In Chhattisgarh, TS Singh Deo, as the Thakur leader and leader of opposition, and Tamardhwaj Sahu and Bhupesh Bagel, as the key swingers of the crucial Other Backward Classes vote, were empowered. Gandhi picked no chief ministerial candidate, although he will have to do so now (but everyone worked hard believing that they had a chance). But in a loose organisational setup, to manage leadership, and reconcile factions, is testament to Gandhi’s underestimated management skills. Once he had figured leadership, he led from the front with an aggressive and energetic campaign.