Jogi hurts BJP more than Cong

CHHATTISGARH BSP’S coalition plays spoilsport in 28 seats

NEWDELHI: Of the three Hindi belt states which went to polls, the Congress had the smallest gap vis-à-vis the BJP in Chhattisgarh.

The Congress’s prospects became weaker after the Bahujan Samaj Party announced an alliance with Ajit Jogi’s Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC-J) and the Communist Party of India (CPI). Because of Jogi’s historical association with the Congress, it was expected that the alliance would probably damage the Congress more than the BJP.

The reverse has happened in these elections. The Congress achieved its biggest victory in Chhattisgarh among the five states which went to polls in this election cycle. It has managed a three-fourth majority in the assembly with a ten percentage point lead over the Bharatiya Janata Party in terms of vote share. Among other things, the Jogi factor seems to have damaged the BJP more than the Congress. An analysis of seats where the BSP, JCC-J and CPI alliance played spoiler – their seat share being greater than the victory margin – proves this point. The alliance has won 6 seats. It played spoiler in 28 out of the 90 seats in the state. Among these 28, the BJP and the Congress have finished second in 17 and 11 seats respectively. In fact, 62.7% of the 67 Congress victories have come in seats where the JCC-J was contesting.

(See Chart 1)

To be sure, the Jogi factor is not the only reason for the BJP’S poor showing in the state. A lot of BJP’S voters seem to have deserted the party. The BJP has suffered a decline in its vote share for the first since the 2003 elections, the first after the formation of the state.

(See Chart 2)