State upholds its 20- yr tradition
DRAMATIC SWING Congress increases its seat tally from 21 in 2013 to 99 in 2018, while the BJP goes down from an imposing 163 to 73
NEW DELHI : Rajasthan has stuck to its trend of alternating between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP). The Congress has increased its seat tally from 21 in 2013 to 99 in the 2018 elections, while the BJP has gone down from 163 seats to 73. The change in fortunes of the BJP and the Congress is a statewide phenomenon.
Rajasthan is divided into eight sub-regions, Ajmer, Bikana, Dhundhar, Hadauti, Matsya, Marwar, Mewar and Shekhwati.
The Congress has improved its seat tally in every region of the state. In terms of seat share, the Congress has performed the best in the Shekhwati region, winning 71% of the 21 seats. It has performed the worst in the Ajmer region, winning only 25% of the eight seats. To be sure, the BJP still has a lead over the Congress in four out the eight regions in state. However, the Congress’s lead over the BJP in other parts of the state has more than neutralised its deficit in these regions.
In terms of vote share, the BJP has suffered a decline across regions, while the Congress has registered an improvement everywhere. The BJP’S biggest reverses have come in the Marwar region, where it has suffered a decline of more than 12 percentage points. The Congress has made its biggest gains in the Hadauti region, where it has increased its vote share by 13 percentage points. In five out of eight regions in the state, the vote swing from the BJP to the Congress is 15 percentage points or more. Vote swing is the sum of absolute values of increase in Congress vote share and decrease in BJP vote share between the 2018 and 2013 polls.
The region-wise break up is important in Rajasthan because it helps understand social group-wise support for the Congress and the BJP in the state.
The Marwar region comprises Jodhpur, Jaisalmer, Barmer, Nagaur, Sirohi, Pali and Jalore districts. The politically volatile region has a large population of farmers as well as Jats. The politics is dominated by the Jat-rajput divide. Given the anger against the BJP government of farmers as well as the Rajput and Jat communities, the BJP has lost support here.
The Congress comprehensively won in the Matsya region which comprises Alwar, Bharatpur, Dholpur and Karauli districts and accounts for 26 seats. The BJP banked on tribal leader Kirori Lal Meena who returned to the party after parting ways in 2008. Meena also had a decisive say in the ticket distribution in Matsya but failed to deliver. The BJP won only three seats as against 14 won by the Congress.
Mewar, another politically significant region, brought some good news for the BJP. In this tribal dominated region, the BJP won 20 seats while the Congress got 12. The region accounts for 35 seats in the districts of Udaipur, Chittorgarh, Bhilwara, Pratapgarh, Rajsamand, Banswara and Dungarpur. While the BJP managed a majority in Udaipur district, it also managed to do well in the tribal dominated seats.
Political analyst Prakash Bhandari said that the BJP was able to overcome anti-incumbency due to the aggressive campaign by prime minister Narendra Modi. “The Congress did not win the thumping majority it was hoping for,” he said.
Analyst Narayan Bareth said the region-wise voting shows that Congress had failed to get support of the Dalits and the tribals. “The Congress could not assure these communities that they would work for their welfare and so where they had an option they voted for someone else.” He said the BSP winning six seats and the Bharat Tribal party winning two seats is a reflection of this.