World not ready for pandemic threat

WHO tracked 1,483 epidemics in 172 countries to prepare the report on assessment of global preparedness to face health emergencies

NEW DELHI: The world is not prepared for the next big pandemic, which can potentially spread between continents in 36 hours and kill up to 80 million people,disrupt economies, and destabilise national security, according to a new assessment of the global preparedness to confront health emergencies.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has tracked 1,483 epidemics in 172 countries between 2011 and 2018, said the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB)THE World At Risk report released on Wednesday.

“Epidemic-prone diseases, such as influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), middle east respiratory syndrome (MERS), Ebola, Zika, plague, yellow fever and others, are harbingers of a new era of high-impact, fast-spreading outbreaks that are frequently detected and difficult to manage,” said the report, which is authored by 15 global scientists and public health leaders, including India’s principal scientific advisor Dr K Vijayraghavan.

A convergence of ecological, political, economic and social trends, including population growth, urbanisation, globally integrated economy, conflict, migration and climate change have raised the frequency and size of epidemics that upend economies and create social chaos.

The report outlines actions to prepare for and mitigate the risk of catastrophic global health emergencies.the report recommends increasing country preparedness by raising funding, doing more research into new technologies, vaccines and medicines, establishing communication systems, launching a coordinated government, industry and community response; and following through international commitments.

“Preparation for pandemic threats calls for high health system capability for prevention, Emerging diseases: Akhmeta (form of pox virus); Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-COV); severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome bunyavirus (SFTSV haemorrhagic fever); E. coli O157:H7 (stomach bug); Bird flu (H5N6, H10N8, H7N9 influenza, and H5N1); severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS);

Nipah.

Re-emerging diseases:diphtheria; typhoid, resistant TB; Nipah, cholera, enterovirus 71 (stomach bug); drug-resistant malaria effective surveillance, early detection and containment and appropriate management of any cases. This requires a sufficiently large and well skilled health workforce with public health expertise and well resourced health care infrastructure apart from robust health information systems that can provide early alerts. An adequate investment is needed in building such a competent health system,” said K Srinath Reddy, president, Public Health Foundation of India.

A pandemic equivalent to the 1918 Spanish Flu could kill 80 million and wipe out nearly 5% of the global economy, devastating health systems and hitting lowresourced communities the hardest, the report said.

Though steps have been taken to increase preparedness since the Ebola pandemic in West Africa five years ago, current efforts are insufficient, said the report. As of July 2019, 59 countries have developed a National Action Plan for Health Security, yet none of them have been fully financed.

India has handled the threats of Nipah and zoonotic influenza viruses quite well. However, the threat of a devastating pandemic looms large on the world and India remains highly vulnerable. “We need multisectoral actions, led by a well resourced and energetic health system, to keep our population protected,” said Reddy.

The GPMB calls for intergovernmental organisations, donors and multilateral institutions to strengthen funding mechanisms, information sharing and monitoring. It asks financing organisations like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to integrate preparedness.

“The report focuses on the potential danger from epidemics and urges governments and international organisations to take proactive measures to prevent it. An important component is weather events like floods and cyclones, which exacerbate the potential of health emergencies like cholera. India has allocated ₹480 crore to the Coalition of Disaster Relief Preparedness for the next five years, which got the Cabinet nod last month, and we play an active part in the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, which is a global public-private coalition to stop epidemics by speeding up the development of vaccines. India has got an existing plan for response to epidemics, and as climate/change related and other health emergencies rise, link science and technology to health systems in the best possible way to mount an effective response,” said Dr Vijay Raghavan.