5% drop in emissions may not have permanent impact

IMPACT ON EMISSIONS WILL BE TEMPORARY AND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A STRONG REBOUND EFFECT WHEN GOVTS TRY TO MAKE UP FOR ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN ONCE PANDEMIC IS UNDER CONTROL.

nNEW DELHI: For the first time in over 75 years the world is going to experience a modest decline in CO2 emissions but that is unlikely to result in any stabilisation in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere which leads to climate change, according to Rob Jackson, Chair of Global Carbon Project, a research initiative on carbon emissions.

Scientists are observing if the rate of rise in CO2 emissions record any decline but that too depends on how long lockdown conditions continue globally.

The economic decline because of the Covid-19 pandemic is likely to give governments an idea of magnitude of transformations needed to deal with climate change, scientists said.

The impact of Covid-19 on CO2 emissions will be temporary and there is likely to be a strong rebound effect when governments try to make up for the economic slowdown once the pandemic is brought under control. With billions of people in lockdown, emissions are likely to dip in March and April if it continues.

“We will definitely see a drop this year in CO2 pollution from fossil fuel use. How much of a decline depends on how long the lockdown lasts and how quickly economies recover. We could see a massive drop in emissions of 5% or more if the virus and economic downturn linger. You’d have to go back to World War II to see anything close to that big a decline. But note that a 5% decline does not mean concentrations will drop. We would still be emitting ~35 billion metric tons fossil fuel pollution,” said Rob Jackson, chair, Global Carbon Project and Professor, Earth System Science, Stanford University over email.

He cautions that the global economic crisis should worry us. “If economy tanks, climate action may be delayed in interest of getting people back to work. I hope we put people back to work in green energy and technology.”

Many scientists have been worrying about this rebound.

Ralph Keeling, Professor at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography has estimated that global fossil fuel use will have to decline by 10% for a full year to show up a decline in CO2 concentrations. It would be a difference of only about 0.5 parts per million, according to Climate Home, an independent climate news portal based on Keeling’s observations.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) had warned about this on March 24 saying in a statement “any cuts in emissions as a result of economic crisis triggered by COVID19 are not a substitute for concerted climate action”. “Past experience suggests emission declines during economic crises are followed by a rapid upsurge. We need to change that trajectory,” WMO Secretarygeneral, Petteri Taalas, had said.

An analysis by Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) has suggested China’s CO2 emissions fell by around 25% over a four week period starting February 3 when travel restrictions were imposed in Wuhan and other cities. But demand slowly returnedover an extended seven-week period.

“Longer-term impact on global emissions trends will depend on policies governments adapt to recover,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst, CREA.