Indian aviation faces turbulence amid pandemic

nNEW DELHI: India’s civil aviation sector will be battered by the coronavirus pandemic with sharp declines in both domestic and international passenger traffic, aviation consultancy Capa India said on Monday.

Consumer sentiment jolted by the virus outbreak, government curbs on air travel, and uncertainty over when they would be relaxed will severely hit airlines and allied industries, Capa India said in a report titled ‘COVID-19 & the State of the Indian Aviation Industry’.

Domestic air passenger traffic is expected to drop from an estimated 140 million in FY2020 to around 80-90 million in FY2021. International traffic is expected to almost halve from 70 million in FY2020 to 35-40 million in FY2021, Capa India said in the report.

Falling demand would leave Indian carriers with 200-250 surplus planes over the next 6-12 months, the consultancy said.

“Indian carriers will require a domestic fleet of around 300-325 aircraft from October-2020 onwards, and an international fleet of 100-125 aircraft,” the report said.

“The total fleet size of 400-450 aircraft would still mean that the current fleet of 650 represents a surplus of 200-250 aircraft for a period of 6-12 months,” it said, adding that the projections assume that travel restrictions are mostly lifted by the end of the June quarter.

India’s aviation industry is expected to post losses of $3-3.6 billion in the June quarter because of covid-19, with airlines sharing the bulk of the hit, Capa India had said in a report last week. The industry has therefore urged the government to offer relief, including fund infusion into airlines and airports.

The aviation industry needs an urgent bailout from the government, FICCI Aviation Committee chairman Anand Stanley said in a letter to civil aviation minister Hardeep Singh Puri last week.