Defusing the India-china dispute
has a very strong leader in PM Narendra Modi, who has not named China for spreading the Covid-19 virus, maintained a studied silence over the treatment of minorities in Xinjiang, not commented on the draconian laws in Hong Kong, and stayed silent while others have pushed for an observer status for Taiwan at the World Health Organization.
By openly favouring a direct dialogue with China on the border issue, India has also kept its ally, the United States, at bay as it does not believe in hyphenation and fiercely guards its strategic independence. PM Modi’s move to restrict foreign direct investment from neighbouring countries — a move clearly aimed at China — shows that India has the capacity and capability to react. But it is also not catalysing the resentment against China at the behest of the Trump administration. The fact is, it is Beijing which is using neighbours such as Pakistan and, more recently, Nepal to project its dominance in the Indian subcontinent and beyond. The argument that the Ladakh stand-off is a result of the Modi government abrogating article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir does not hold good as no less than Foreign Minister S Jaishankar flew to Beijing last August to reassure China that India was not raising any additional territorial claim on contested areas in the region. By aggressively posturing on the border, China has added insult to injury as Beijing has hardly addressed India’s demand to reduce the trade deficit, which stood at $51.68 billion from January-november 2019 before the pandemic struck the world.
Still, with both leaders previously committing to not turning bilateral differences into disputes, it would be in the interest of both parties to withdraw to their respective base camps in Eastern Ladakh as there is no way that India is going to allow China to make unilateral changes in either of the sectors. The Modi government will also not come under pressure from China on its legitimate border infrastructure upgrade, which is happening well within its own territory. After 21 rounds of hardly productive Special Representative Dialogue on the resolution of the boundary issue, it is time that the two sides at least exchange maps of the western and eastern sector so that the two armies know each other’s positions on the ground. The two leaders need to keep their communication channels open as both their bureaucracies and militaries carry a huge historical baggage and cannot think beyond protecting their silos. The direct channel will assume further importance as the succession of the Dalai Lama is on the horizon with China expected to come up with its own candidate as it did in the case of the Panchen Lama. The two most-populated nations in the world, the countries with the first and second largest armies in the world, cannot be adversaries forever.