Higher fatality rates in 69 districts: Centre to states

CONCERN Cab secy’s presentation shows these districts have a CFR of 5%, compared to national average of 2.9%

nNEWDELHI/CHANDIGARH:ALTHOUGH the case fatality rate (CFR) -- the percentage of deaths of total Covid-19 cases reported -- has marginally dipped to 2.9% since May 18, when the government eased lockdown norms, 69 districts have a CFR of 5% or more, which cabinet secretary Rajiv Gauba termed a matter of concern at a meeting with state government officials on Thursday.

Gauba gave a detailed presentation on the overall Covid-19 situation in India as of June 9 and the challenges since the government eased the lockdown and states such as Rajasthan, Mizoram and Uttar Pradesh reimposing some of them .

“The case fatality rate has remained flat at 2.90% as compared to 2.96% on May 18,” the cabinet secretary said, indicating that there was not much reason to worry as India’s case fatality rate was lower than that of several western countries, officials who attended the meeting said on condition of anonymity.

The number of Covid cases increased from 100,800 on May 18 to 287,155 on Wednesday and the number of deaths rose from 3,156 to 8,108 in the period.

On state-specific Covid data, Gauba said 82% of all the deaths have been reported from five states — Maharashtra, Delhi, Gujarat ,West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh — which also have a high caseload, although most of the deaths have been caused by comorbidities.

The cabinet secretary also said 69 districts reported more than 5% of the CFR, terming it as an “issue of concern.” Of them, the highest number were in Madhya Pradesh (21), followed by Uttar Pradesh (11), Gujarat (9), Rajasthan (5) and Telangana (3). Shahdara in the Northeast district in Delhi, Jind in Haryana, Kapurthala in Punjab and Bastar in Chhattisgarh were other districts with a high CFR.

Gauba said the five states that accounted for 82% of the deaths, also reported highest rate of increase in the Covid-19 cases between May 18 and June 9, resulting in the total cases in India increasing by almost 170% during this period. These states also had more than 70% of the cases in India, he said.

All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, (AIIMS) director Randeep Guleria, said India’s Covid fatality rate was much lower than the global average of 3% to 3.5%. “In the districts or states having high mortality rate, the local administrations need to focus on surveillance of elderly patients with other dismaharashtra, Detailed guidelines on the same have been circulated with the state governments,” he said.

Among 736 districts in the country, the presentation said, 14 districts accounted for 60% of the total cases. Half of the districts were in the National Capital Region (NCR), including the five districts of Delhi, Gurugram and Gautam Budh Nagar. The other districts were Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad, Pune, Thane, Chengalpattu, Ahmedabad and Kolkata.

Some of these districts have also seen the fastest increase in Covid cases since the easing of restrictions on May 18, the presentation said. “These are the districts which have more than 400 cases, of which 50% of the cases have been reported after May 18. These districts are concentrated in seven states – Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Karnataka, Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana,” the presentation said. It also pointed out that Gurugram, Udupi, Yadgir and Kolhapur have reported 90% of the 400 plus cases since May 18.

On the basis of a district-wise analysis of the rate of increase of the Covid cases, the health ministry has identified 50 districts that may face a shortage of hospieases. tal beds by the first week of July. Of them, the presentation said 17 districts have the highest probability of a shortage .

These districts are Mumbai, Thane, Palghar, Jalgaon and Raigad in Maharashtra, Udupi, Raichur and Yadgir in Karnataka, Kulgam and Kupwara in Jammu and Kashmir, Bharatpur in Rajasthan, Gautam Budh Nagar in Uttar Pradesh and Chennai, Chengalpattu, Thiruvallur and Thoothukudi in Tamil Nadu.

On the Covid confirmation rate, a measure of positive cases out of total Covid tests done, the presentation said three states — Delhi and Telangana — had a confirmation rate of more than 10% as compared to 5.7% national rate, which has increased by almost one percentage point since May 18.

“The increase in confirmation rate (between May 18 and June 9) indicates at either increase in spread of corona virus or lower testing during this period,” the presentation said. On the district-wise analysis, the presentation said that 46 districts in 13 states had a confirmation rate of more than 10% with the highest number of districts (12) being in Maharashtra followed by nine in Delhi.