113 Covid-19: What you need to know today
J&K
India’s Covid-19 positivity rate – the proportion of people testing positive to those tested – is increasing. The weekly average is around 11.7% now. The number has steadily increased. It was around 8.1% a month ago. In early May, it was as low as 3%. Contrary to what this trend may immediately suggest, and concerns being expressed by some experts, a rising positivity rate in India, under the current context, is actually good news.
India has thus far carried out around 11,310 tests per million of the population. This number too has been increasing steadily; over the past week for instance, India carried out 333,697 tests a day on average. It should be doing a million a day, but the current number is still higher than the 143,565 tests a day it was conducting in mid-june. This increase is responsible for the country’s rising positivity rate.
As regular readers of this column know, the positivity rate increases with testing till a point, then plateaus, and then eventually starts declining as a country, state, or city starts testing adequately. At the current level of testing, India has tested around 1.1% of its population. That’s way too low. There are countries that have done 10-12%, but given India’s size and population, the country should be aiming for testing at least 5% of the population.
It is important to understand how to read the positivity rate. A low rate is desirable, but only when accompanied by adequate testing. There are states that show a low positivity, but this isn’t because they have few cases, but because they aren’t testing enough. Uttar Pradesh, Odisha and Bihar, for instance, have low positivity rates, but are clearly not testing enough, and so while absolute numbers may suggest that they are better off than other states in managing Covid-19, they actually aren’t. In fact, the reverse is probably true.
Telangana and Gujarat have higher positivity rates, but they too are clearly not testing adequately (which is actually even more worrying).
In contrast, Delhi has a high positivity rate (cumulatively), but the number is way off its peak (when the trend in daily positivity rates is seen; for instance, it was only 5.7% on Thursday), an indication that things have gotten better in the Capital (which is also reflected in the falling number of daily cases). And it is testing a lot (around 4.4% of its population has been tested at last count). Tamil Nadu presents another narrative. It is testing adequately (it has tested 2.8% of its population at last count, a significant number for a state with a population of around 80 million), and is just about maintaining its positivity rate (which means the daily cases are still high) – an indication that the state is on the long plateau that comes before the dip. The state’s positivity rate is way off the peaks it once scaled, perhaps an indication of just how badly inadequate testing can skew this metric in either direction.
It’s easy to understand – given this behaviour – why most experts maintain that a positivity rate between 7% and 12% (some are a lot more specific and put the number at 10%) is a reflection of adequate testing. Given the Tamil Nadu example, this proportion seems to correspond with the ideal positivity rate in the plateau-phase of the curve.
So, how high can India’s positivity rate go? That’s a tough question to answer, but if the country were to sharply increase testing – say, reach the million-testa-day mark that I’ve been suggesting – it will reach this peak very soon.
Still better, it won’t stay there very long if it keeps up the intensity of testing.
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nNEW DELHI: A 14-year-old girl admitted to a 10,000-bed Covid Care Centre in south Delhi’s Chhatarpur — the largest in the country — was raped last week inside the facility by a 19-year-old man who was housed there, the police said on Thursday.
The man and his friend, who stood guard and allegedly recorded the crime at the Sardar Patel Covid Care Centre, have been arrested in the first such known case in the national capital, officials said. Both of them are coronavirus disease patients.
“The girl was immediately shifted to a government hospital, where she continues to receive treatment for Covid-19. The suspects, too, are yet to recover and have been moved to another hospital while they remain in judicial custody,” said Parvinder Singh, additional deputy commissioner of police (south).
A case has been registered under the Protection of Children from Sexual Offences (Pocso) Act at the Maidan Garhi police station.
The alleged crime took place at the Indo-tibetan Border Police (ITBP)-RUN facility on July 15 night — within a week of the girl and the two men getting admitted to the centre.
The facility, billed as the biggest in the world, is operating out of the Radha Soami Satsang Beas in Chhatarpur and has about 10,200 beds. But just 250 of them are currently occupied.
That leaves much of the space unmanned.
When the facility was opened on July 5, the ITBP said it will deploy 1,000 personnel for security arrangements. But with only a small section of the facility currently occupied, about 100 ITBP personnel work in shifts here to provide security.
“The survivor and the rape accused became familiar with each other during their stay there. On July 15, the suspect called the survivor to a common but isolated spot in the facility on the pretext of speaking to her,” a police investigator said on condition of anonymity.
The suspect asked his 20-yearold friend to stand guard and alert him if someone approached them. Then he allegedly raped the girl in the facility’s washroom area, the investigator said.
The police said the girl also alleged “the suspect’s friend went on to record the crime on his mobile phone and officials were trying to verify the charge”.
The girl reported the crime to an attendant at the facility the next morning. Authorities at the facility then informed the police.
The girl was shifted to a hospital and sent for a medical examination, which allegedly confirmed the sexual assault, according to the police investigator.
The girl came to the centre a week before the alleged crime as her home had no extra room where she could be put under home isolation, said another police officer who didn’t want to be identified.
“There was just another patient who knew her family,” said the officer.
Both suspects have relatives who are admitted in the centre.
Covid care centres are used to house pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic patients and those with mild infections who do not have appropriate isolation facilities at home.
An ITBP officer, who didn’t want to be identified, said: “ITBP’S security personnel are usually not deployed in the bathroom area...this is a disease in which we are supposed to maintain a safe distance from the patients. While we are investigating how the crime happened, we have enhanced the security arrangements here,” he said.
The ITBP officer said the agency’s personnel deployed at the centre reacted “proactively”. “Our doctors immediately spoke to the survivor and made sure the crime was actively pursued by the police,” he said.
At the facility, a small section is occupied by the ITBP service providers while the patients’ sections are on the other side.
About 30% of all patients admitted here are female, a government official said.
Daily positivity rate
Weekly average
All states and UTS based on their samples tested per million residents and overall positivity rate. Size of circles denote total cases.
ITBP security staff are usually not deployed in the bathroom area .... we are supposed to maintain a safe distance from the patients.
AN ITBP OFFICER