Heavy rain likely in central India this week

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY OVER MADHYA PRADESH, VIDARBHA, TELANGANA, GUJARAT, MAHARASHTRA AND RAJASTHAN IN THE NEXT THREE-FOUR DAYS

nNEW DELHI: Two low pressure systems are likely to bring widespread, heavy rains in some central and western states in the coming week, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

A low-pressure area over eastern Madhya Pradesh is likely to move westwards across the state in the next three-four days, an IMD official said on Friday. “During its transit, the system will bring extremely heavy rain (over 20 cm) in Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Gujarat,” the official said, presenting the forecast for the next two weeks.

The monsoon trough is active and south of its normal position (which is Ganganagar in Rajasthan

to the Bay of Bengal), according to IMD.

Under the influence of favourable conditions, widespread rain is likely over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Telangana, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Rajasthan in the next three-four days.

Extremely heavy rain is also likely over eastern Rajasthan and the Gujarat region from August 21 to 23. Due to the low-pressure area, rainfall activity is likely to increase over eastern and adjoining areas in central India from August 23. Very heavy rain is likely over Odisha from August 23 to 24, over Gangetic West Bengal on August 24 and 25, and over Jharkhand on August 25.

Around August 24, another low-pressure area is likely to develop over the Bay of Bengal. During the next one week, monshowing soon will remain extremely active in all parts of the country, except Jammu and Kashmir and the southern Peninsula.

Very active monsoon conditions in late August indicate that there may be an extended rainy season. “Normally, by August last week, rains start reducing very gradually. But this time, July was very weak. Monsoon picked up in August, and as of today, no monsoon model is any likelihood of reduction in rain...,” said RK Jenamani, senior scientist, national weather forecasting centre.

According to an analysis of data from 1971-2019, monsoon starts withdrawing from northwest India around September 17, which is over two weeks later compared to the earlier normal date of September 1.

Last year, IMD declared the beginning of monsoon retreat on October 9. Within a span of just five days, it withdrew from most parts of the country. The entire withdrawal process took just eight days. Previously, the process used to take about 45 days.

“Modified onset and withdrawal dates have already been issued by IMD (in May). Our forecast also shows that we will record excess rains in September

— about 106% of LPA (long period average) in August and September period. So, it’s very difficult to say when monsoon will retreat,” said K Sathi Devi, head, national weather forecasting centre.

Till August 21, monsoon rain is 7% excess in India (6% excess over east and northeast India, 15% deficient over northwest India, 11% excess over central India, and 26% excess over southern Peninsula).

The August 13-19 week recorded 42% excess rain compared to LPA for the week. This was the highest rainfall received in a week this monsoon season.

Five states — Delhi (143% excess), Gujarat (350% excess), Maharashtra (114% excess), Telangana (297%) and Chhattisgarh (62% excess) — recorded large excess rains during the week.