Signs of Covid uptick as states lower guard

NEW DELHI: Three states and one Union Territory have seen their seven-day averages of daily Covid-19 cases rise by between 20% and 69% of lows seen after the end of the first wave of the pandemic, an analysis by HT shows. This highlights the potential risk of a surge in cases amid fears of mutant strains gaining ground, and laxity in adhering to protocols due to Covid fatigue being reported across the country.

In addition to the regions mentioned above — Maharashtra, Punjab, Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir — the first wave continues unabated in the southern state of Kerala.

To be sure, all this comes even as India has vaccinated 10 million people, although an outbreak now could divert the attention of the public health system from vaccination to managing infections.

The increase in cases is being reported from these areas as restrictions on several economic and social activities have eased, and people and governments appear to be getting complacent, with almost no mask discipline in many parts of rural India, and even some cities. At the same time, testing is over 50% of its peak across India; in Delhi, too, it is 30% lower than peak capacity levels.

While Maharashtra, the state worst-hit by the disease, is again seeing a strong resurgence of infections with cases rising rapidly over the past week, Punjab, Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir also face the immediate risk of seeing a second Covid-19 surge, according to HT’S analysis. Kerala, meanwhile, remains the only state in the country which is yet to bring its primary wave of infections in control.

This resurgence in new cases, along with rising positivity rates and a drop in testing comes at a time when cases across the majority of the country are at the lowest in eight months, which has prompted local governments to start relaxing norms, and encouraged people to drop their guards.

To identify the regions where cases are rising again, HT analysed data from India’s 20 most populous states and UTS to nar