Positivity rate drops below 7%, 265 new deaths
The number of deaths will remain high for two to three weeks after the peak in the number of cases. This is because people who were infected earlier are now in hospitals with severe disease.
former head of dept of epidemiology at Indian Council of Medical Research
NEW DELHI: Delhi reported 4,482 new cases of Covid-19 on Tuesday, almost the same as the day before, but from a higher number of tests, which that the test positivity rate clocked in at lower than 7% for the first time since April 7.
Experts said the positivity rate – proportion of samples that return positive – dropping to 6.89% underlines the trend of the outbreak slowing down in the national capital, which has been in a near-complete lockdown since April 19 after a fourth wave of cases took hold.
A day after the lockdown was imposed, the Capital reported a peak of over 28,000 cases in a day and the positivity rate at one point crossed 36%, meaning one in three people tested for the infection had it.
Delhi reported over 20,000 cases each day for sixteen consecutive days between April 17 and May 2, after which the cases began receding gradually.
Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal has urged people to keep up their guard against the disease.
“The virus is reducing in Delhi slowly and steadily, and I hope it diminishes completely and does not rise again. However, we are not going to become negligent in anyway,” he said on Saturday.
The deaths are yet to taper off. Although lower than the peak of 448 deaths reported on May 3, the city has been reporting about 300 deaths on average daily for the last seven days. On Tuesday, Delhi reported 265 deaths due to the viral infection, taking the city’s total Covid-19 toll to 22,111 so far since the first death was reported on March 13 last year.
“No one can say when or if the next surge will happen. What we have seen so far is that the there is a gap of five to six months between the two waves. This can be utilised to put things in order and prepare. Strong genomic sequencing data along with the epidemiological picture will also help in predicting (the pattern),” said Dr Lalit Kant, former head of the department of epidemiology at the Indian Council of Medical Research.
The seven-day rolling average case fatality ratio (CFR) – proportion of deaths among those who test positive – stood at 3.67% on Tuesday. The cumulative CFR, calculated on the basis of total cases and deaths reported so far, stands at 1.58% in Delhi.
Experts said the numbers could stay low for some time, with a large chunk of the population having been exposed to the infection.
“Those who have had the infection will be protected from a second infection for some time,” said Dr Jugal Kishore, head of the department of community medicine at Safdarjung Hospital.
To be sure, confirmed cumulative positive cases in the Capital are at a little over 1.4 million, which is approximately 7.5% of the population -- which potentially leaves a large swathe of the population still vulnerable to the virus.