Monsoon onset likely to be weak, delayed: IMD
NEW DELHI: After the initial euphoria over the monsoon moving fast towards the Indian coast and arriving early in Kerala — it should have arrived already by those projections — meteorologists said it is likely to make a weak, and likely delayed, onset over Kerala following which it will progress slowly during the first week of June.
The monsoon has advanced into some parts of the Southwest Arabian Sea, some more parts of the Southeast Arabian Sea, Maldives, Comorin and South Bay of Bengal, the India Meteorological Department said on Thursday, adding it is currently a day late.
Conditions are favourable for further advance of monsoon over some more parts of South Arabian Sea, entire Maldives and adjoining areas of Lakshadweep and some more parts of Comorin area during next 48 hours, IMD said, adding that advance of monsoon over Kerala is being continuously monitored. IMD forecast on May 14 that the monsoon’s onset over Kerala was likely to be on May 27 with a model error of +/-4 days, five days ahead of its expected onset.
But the monsoon’s progress stalled since May 20. It reached Andaman and Nicobar Islands a week ahead of its usual date on May 16 but slowed after that. There is some improvement in progress now and the onset over Kerala is likely early next week but experts said its likely to be a weak onset. This means rainfall will remain light to moderate over Kerala with isolated instances of heavy rain. “Monsoon will progress but we can expect a weak onset over Kerala. The south-westerly winds are not very strong and the normal monsoon surge is not expected. Light to moderate rainfall is likely over Kerala with isolated heavy rain over some regions. Following the onset, its progress will not be very fast and hence we cannot say immediately how and when it will cover central India. This could lead to a marginal setback for early sowing,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate change and meteorology, Skymet Weather.
There is a 65% rain deficiency over northwest India, 39% deficiency over central India, 76% excess over peninsular India, and 27% excess over east and northeast India in the ongoing pre-monsoon period which started on March 1. “Monsoon progress is slow but it is raining over Kerala. Monsoon onset can still happen on time but it will not be a very active monsoon onset as was expected earlier...,” said DS Pai, director at the Institute of Climate Change Studies, government of Kerala and a former IMD scientist.