Monsoon rain to be 103% of LPA: IMD
NEW DELHI: Monsoon rainfall during the next four months (June to September) is likely to be “normal” at 103% of Long Period Average with a model error of +/-4%, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said while presenting its second stage long range forecast for monsoon on Tuesday, with the forecast likely to assuage concerns about a sub-par monsoon exacerbating inflationary tendencies.
In its first stage LRF issued in April, IMD forecast that monsoon rainfall was likely to be 99% of LPA.
If IMD’S forecast is realised, this will be the fourth consecutive year that monsoon rain will be in the “normal” or “above normal” category. Last year monsoon rainfall was 99% of LPA (normal); in 2020, monsoon was 109% of LPA (above normal); in 2019 monsoon was 110% of LPA (above normal). The last time India saw four consecutive years of normal or above normal monsoons was 14 years ago, between 2005 and 2008, according to IMD officials. The period between 1993 and 1999 also saw only normal or above normal monsoon years, according to IMD officials.
A good monsoon is likely to ensure adequate sowing and a bountiful harvest -- cooling inflation, which, at the retail level in April at 7.9%, was at an eightyear high.
LPA is the average rainfall calculated for the 1971 to 2020 period which is 87 cm.
Monsoon rainfall is likely to be above normal over central India (over 106% of LPA) and South Peninsula (over 106% of LPA), and its likely to be normal over northeast India (96 to 106% of LPA) and northwest India (92 to 108% of LPA). For the monsoon core zone which mainly consists of areas where agriculture is rain-fed, monsoon rain is also likely to be above normal at over 106% of LPA, IMD said. The core zone stretches from Odisha to Maharashtra and Gujarat.
“We have increased the quantum of rainfall likely to be received during monsoon months because projections are showing that La Nina conditions will continue till the end of monsoon. La Nina conditions will support normal rains which may be countered a little due to development of negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions over the Indian Ocean. The statistical parameters are also favourable for a good monsoon. For example, the sea surface temperature over the North Atlantic, the mean sea pressure over the Pacific etc are favourable. The number of favourable parameters are higher during this second stage forecast than what was during the first stage forecast issued in April,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.