Experts say monsoon weak, running behind schedule

THE MONSOON HAS SO FAR COVERED MOST PARTS OF TAMIL NADU, KERALA AND SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA

NEW DELHI: The monsoon is running several days behind schedule in covering peninsular India and is in the midst of a so-called weak phase, a potential cause for concern for farmers who are waiting to sow their crops, experts said on Wednesday. By June 10, the monsoon usually covers large parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. This year, it has so far covered most parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and south interior Karnataka. It has also covered almost all of northeast India.

On Wednesday, IMD did not provide an outlook on whether the monsoon will advance further over the next few days. “There is almost a 5-7 day delay in the progress of the monsoon. It is presently in a weak mode. Monsoon moves in bursts, sometimes it’s in a weak phase while sometimes it’s in vigorous phase. If a low-pressure area forms over Bay of Bengal in the next few days, then it will propel the monsoon. But we are not seeing any chances of such a low-pressure area developing. Slow monsoon progress may affect sowing but normally most states have a large window with time up to

July 15 for sowing,” explained DS Pai, director of Institute of Climate Change Studies and former climate scientist at IMD Pune. However, IMD denied the monsoon is in a weak phase. “We cannot say the monsoon is in a weak phase. Wherever monfor soon has arrived, there has been excess rainfall except Kerala. We are expecting a cyclonic circulation to form over Arabian Sea which will help the monsoon move forward,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.

The monsoon rains are critical this year because northwest and central India are experiencing a very prolonged extreme heat and dry spell which started in March. The monsoon season, which begins on June 1, is crucial for summer crops and accounts for about 70% of India’s annual rainfall. It is critical to the country’s agriculture, which is one of the mainstays of its economy.

The monsoon impacts inflation, jobs, and industrial demand.

“The progression of the monsoon over India is a battle between the dry summer air and moist monsoon winds. To win the battle, the monsoon must push away the dry air either on its own or with the support of the tropical intra-seasonal oscillation. For brevity, the tropical intraseasonal oscillation could be visualised as bands of clouds and rain that move northwards and eastwards from the equator...,” explained Akshay Deoras, an independent meteorologist and doctoral researcher at the UK’S University of Reading.