Presidential election: A glimpse of 2024

The election for the next President of India heralds the next round of the political battle between the government and the Opposition. At one level, the outcome of the exercise is largely predictable. In the electoral college, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) begins with a decisive numerical and psychological edge. Numerical, because it is within striking distance of the majority mark and several regional parties are likely to back the ruling coalition that almost ensures that its nominee will be the next occupant of Rashtrapati Bhavan. And psychological because of its astute manoeuvres in the Rajya Sabha elections that helped it effectively snatch three extra seats and leave the Opposition dispirited.

Yet, there are two big unknowns in this election. From the government’s side, it will be interesting to see the kind of political messaging the NDA prefers to send through its nominee. In 2017, the Bharatiya Janata Party signalled to 200 million Scheduled Castes that it was not inimical to their interests by nominating the country’s second Dalit President, Ram Nath Kovind. The NDA is certain to use this platform, the biggest until the 2024 general election, to underline its preferences. Though the Opposition nominee will face an uphill battle, it will be instructive to see whether the Congress — despite having the largest chunk of votes in the bloc — continues to act as the fulcrum of the camp or whether its diminishing appeal even among other political parties hurts its ability to push its preferences through. In the interplay of these dynamics, and their culmination, we will get the first glimpse of where the next general election is headed.