Advantage BJP as chinks in INDIA armour exposed
LUCKNOW: The Rajya Sabha biennial election has exposed chinks in the ranks of political parties a day before legislators vote to elect 10 MPs from Uttar Pradesh on Tuesday.
There are 11 candidates in the fray with the BJP nominating eight candidates. The Samajwadi Party, on the other hand, has fielded three candidates.
The BJP and the SP appear to have no problems in winning seven and two seats, respectively, if the MLAs of both the camps vote as per their declared positions. But reports that eight SP MLAs skipped a dinner and meeting hosted by party chief Akhilesh Yadav has further heightened speculation. The Samajwadi Party is a key constituent of the opposition INDIA bloc in Uttar Pradesh.
Both the camps indulged in dinner politics for last minute lobbying, though the BJP appears to be on a firm footing.
As the election to Rajya Sabha is held through proportional representation by means of single transferable vote, the political parties make strategic allocation of votes to their candidates to ensure that all of them get the required quota to win. Both the camps have indulged in dinner politics to keep their arithmetic right and get some numbers from the rival camp through cross voting though voting will take place through open ballot.
With three vacancies, the Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly has an effective strength of 399 members. Three MLAs are in different jails. This reduces the effective strength of the house to 396. If all other MLAs vote and the value of each vote is taken to be 100, the total value of valid votes comes to 39,600.
To work out the required winning quota for every seat will be 39,600, this is divided by the number of seats going for poll plus one. Then, one is added to this number, taking the total value of every vote to 3601. This means, each winning candidate will need a vote value of 3601. So, every political party will have to allot at least 37 MLAs though this will have surplus vote value. The surplus votes are considered if the second or subsequent preferences are counted to declare the winner.
The BJP has 252 MLAs. It has the support of Apna Dal (Sone Lal) having 13 MLAs, NISHAD party with six members and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) with six members. The Jansatta Dal (Loktantrik) has two members. As the Rashtriya Lok Dal is likely to align with the BJP, its members are being counted in the BJP’s vote strength that comes to 288 now. SBSP MLA Abbas Ansari is in jail. Although Ansari may not have voted for the BJP candidates, his absence brings down the BJP’s and allied parties voting strength to 287.
The BSP’s only member Uma Shankar Singh has not announced his support though he may either abstain or go in favour of the BJP keeping in view the strained relations between the SP and the BSP. The SP’s two members Irfan Solanki and Ramakant Yadav are in jail.