Maharashtra becoming new BJP bastion?
AGAINST ODDS BJPled government scored an impressive total in the civic body polls and increased its influence in state
MUMBAI: The recently announced results of the local body elections in Maharashtra have come as a shock for opposition parties who were hoping the tide would turn against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that has been on a winning streak in the state since 2014. They were expecting the inconvenience faced by the people, particularly in rural areas, because of the Centre’s controversial move to demonetise high-value banknotes would reflect on the election results, declared on February 21.
Much to their dismay, the results have established BJP’s complete dominance in cities and growing clout in rural areas.
It either won majority of the seats or emerged as the largest party in 8 out of 10 civic bodies. In Mumbai, it has won just two seats less than the Shiv Sena, which emerged as the largest party.
The BJP also won maximum seats in 10 zilla parishads that handle rural governance and polled sizeable number of votes in other 15.
This is a hat-trick of wins for the party in Maharashtra. In 2014, it won 42 (including one by its ally Raju Shetti) out of 48 Lok Sabha seats. Six months later, it tripled its strength in the assembly bagging 122 seats to come to power. Now it has dominated the local self-government elections.
For a party that struggled, not too long ago, to make inroads into the state, which was often seen as a Congress bastion, this is a major achievement. And the way the opposition Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) are struggling, the pertinent question doing the rounds in political circles is: Will the BJP turn Maharashtra into its another stronghold?
EARLY YEARS IN THE STATE
The BJP, a post-emergency offshoot of the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, was formed in Mumbai in 1980. But even a decade after its inception, the party was not a strong political force in the state. BJP leader late Vasantrao Bhagwat made the first serious attempt to make it a massbased party. He coined the term `MADHAVAM,’ the Marathi acronym is the combination of initials of non-Brahmin castes—Mali (gardeners), Dhangar (shepherds), Vanjari and Maratha.
Three of the communities are from the Other Backward Classes while Maratha is the politically dominant caste. Accordingly, the party promoted leaders such as Gopinath Munde (Vanjari), NS Pharande (Mali), Anna Dange (Dhangar) and late Suryabhan Vahadane.
It yielded results and the BJP established itself among the OBCs, who were unhappy with the Congress for allegedly promoting Marathas, Muslims and Dalits. The BJP first managed to do well electorally in the 1990 assembly elections in alliance with the Shiv Sena.
THE RISE OF BJP
After Munde became Leader of the Opposition, after a split in the Shiv Sena in 1991, the party hogged the limelight aggressively attacking then chief minister Sharad Pawar on the issues of corruption and criminalisation of politics. Polarisation of voters in the wake of Ram Mandir agitation and the Mumbai communal riots further helped the BJP-Sena to win power for the first time in the state in 1995. At that time the Sena was big brother and the BJP had to play second fiddle.
THE MODI EFFECT
The BJP in Maharashtra, however, owes its dramatic rise largely to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. During the Lok Sabha elections, the party won 42 of the 48 parliamentary seats. Six months later, it reaped the benefit of the Modi wave again to increase its tally from 46 to 122 in the assembly elections. In the local body elections Fadnavis (chief minister Devendra Fadnavis) factor too worked in BJP’s favour.
BUILDING ON 2014 VICTORY
In the past two years, Fadnavis managed to create a positive narrative in favour of his government by pushing several infrastructure projects, which were stuck during the previous CongressNCP regime. His clean image too helped the party. The only doubt the BJP top brass initially had was whether Fadnavis could win elections for the party.
Between November 2016 and February 2017, elections to199 municipal councils, 25 ZPs and 10 municipal corporations in Maharashtra were held. These elections covered more than 80% of the population and as such were regarded as mini-assembly elections and a referendum on the government’s performance.
“Currently, the BJP seems to be riding the high horse. The party, especially the CM, has managed to connect well with the people in the past two years. Its victory, however, is more to do with the inaction of the Congress-NCP combine. The Congress is in war with itself,” remarks B Venkatesh Kumar, a Mumbaibased political analyst.
TROUBLE FOR OPPOSITION
The main opposition party, the Congress has failed to stop its downward slide that started in 2014. It could not win a single civic body in the recent elections. Its vote share in districts fell to 19.43% from 26.84% in 2012. In cities, it decreased to 13.14% from 19.70% in 2012.
On the other hand, the BJP’s vote share increased to 24.91% from 11.77% in rural area and 35.36% from 13.29% in cities. The NCP saw a marginal drop of 4 to 6% in its vote share. The Congress is clearly a party that appears directionless as of now. The NCP, on the other hand, is still unable to make up its mind on whether to be with the opposition or to continue hobnobbing with the ruling party.
COUNTERING SENA THE KEY
With its recent successes, the BJP busted the myth that it’s primarily an urban party like the Shiv Sena. Ironically, the other saffron party appears to be the only threat to the BJP at this moment. More so as the two parties share the same vote base. The BJP will have to work out strategies to breach Sena’s strong presence in Mumbai, Konkan, some pockets in western and north Maharashtra as well as Marathwada region.
But to its advantage, the political battle in Maharashtra is increasingly becoming a fight between the BJP versus the rest, giving it an upper hand.
THE BJP WILL HAVE TO WORK OUT STRATEGIES TO BREACH SHIV SENA’S PRESENCE IN MUMBAI, KONKAN, PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH MAHARASHTRA AS WELL AS THE MARATHWADA REGION