A serendipitous turn in relations
India must cash in on the change in Lanka’s earlier pro-China tilt
Through a combination of bad luck and poor calculation Sri Lanka has emerged as a point of contention between India and China. Sri Lanka made itself a geopolitical concern; it did two things that small countries should avoid. One, it sought to play a China card to fend off Indian pressure over a political settlement with the country’s Tamil minority. Two, part of the Lankan political leadership decided it could guarantee its domestic dominance by accepting billions from Beijing. Either one of these policies would have led India to take countermeasures. The result: A mountain of high-interest Chinese debt, a number of economically questionable infrastructure projects and far too much attention from the world’s major powers.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has now sensibly visited Sri Lanka twice in as many years. Under former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, Sri Lanka came to see China as a solution to all its problems. While all this went down poorly with New Delhi, it helped precipitate the coalition that brought Maithripala Sirisena to office and left Sri Lanka saddled with huge debts and a permanent China presence on the island. India’s response has been suitably measured. New Delhi has declined to help Sri Lanka reduce its debts but has signed up for a number of projects and investments to help the country tackle its debt problems.
The other side to all this is a broader hearts and minds issue. Prime Minister Modi spoke at a Buddhist conference and then to the Indian-origin plantation workers, earning points with both communities. The island nation is polarised thanks to the bitterness of the long civil war. This makes its public overly suspicious of the designs of external players and prone to judging third countries on the basis of ethnic biases rather than the merits of actual policies. Many more visits and considerable attention will be required by New Delhi to bring true serendipity to the bilateral relationship.