Saharanpur violence is bad news for a ‘new India’
The confrontations between Dalits and Thakurs in UP have eroded the party’s claims of improving law and order
Asimple question is beginning to haunt the Yogi government of UP. Why is an all-powerful government, soon after elections, unable to handle a district level law and order/political issue? The answer lies in the nature of BJP’s spectacular win itself. The Saharanpur clashes between Thakurs and Dalits was perhaps inevitable. There are two ways to view the caste clashes — through the prism of politics and governance. To win UP, the BJP relied on upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits. Together, they constitute close to 60% of the population.
What this also meant was that three extremely powerful social groups voted against the party — Muslims, Yadavs, and Jatavs among Dalits. These groups, at different points, have ruled UP for over 15 years. It is not surprising that the change in the balance of power, and the exclusion of these groups from the power structure, began to have an impact on the ground. Other groups which have voted for BJP feel emboldened, while these three groups feel victimised. If it was a small fringe, it was different. But together, they constitute over 40% of the population. This is not to suggest that all three groups are acting in concert — far from it. Indeed, there remain contradictions and conflicts within these groups too.
But the BJP’s political success with its 60% formula — of getting the support of everyone else but these groups — is now turning into a 40% governance problem — of having to cope with challenges that emerge from these three groups. In Saharanpur, it is the Jatavs; in other places, it could be Muslims; elsewhere, it could even be Yadavs. These are not groups to take it lying down if BJP’s supporters turn aggressive. And they have enough numbers and political strength to cause problems for the administration.
If it spreads, the BJP will also have to deal with another dimension of the problem. The party is in the middle of an ambitious political experiment — of creating a multi-caste alliance. The PM has made a conscious effort to expand into Dalits, backwards and poor: The party too has recognised that its ideological project of Hindu unity and electoral project of winning elections will always encounter obstacles without Dalits. At the same time, it has been able to retain the loyalty of its older base of upper castes. If the Saharanpur clashes end up extending to clashes with other Dalits, it will mean that BJP’s multi-class, multi-caste project is in trouble. Yogi Adityanath and BJP are realising that social contradictions in a state like UP are such that even huge mandates do not go uncontested. Indeed, sometimes political wins of this nature themselves sharpen contradictions.