Trump cannot ‘solve’ the North Korea problem

Given that Kim Jongun may have nuclear warheads and ICBMs, the US must be careful in dealing with him

The great problem in knowing whether Korea is about to explode is in judging which words to take seriously and which to ignore. For years, leaders of the world’s only communist family dynasty have threatened to drown South Korea, the United States and Japan in a lake of fire. Past US presidents have shrugged off these threats and worked behind the scenes with China and South Korea to find safe ways to tighten pressure on the regime.

But things have changed. There are two important changes. First, US President Donald Trump is less willing than his predecessors to handle things quietly. Instead, Trump has approached North Korea with warships and threatened to “solve” North Korea, with or without Chinese help. He has also said he’d be willing to meet with Kim Jong-un. Depending on what happened in that hypothetical meeting, either a negotiated settlement or war might become more likely.

The second difference is much more important. In fairness to Trump, a more assertive response is warranted, because satellite imagery tells us that North Korea has made substantial progress toward constructing an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the US mainland— and on miniaturisation of a nuclear warhead that the missile can carry. This is why former president Obama warned Trump that North Korea was likely to be his biggest foreign policy challenge. It’s one thing to negotiate with an erratic dictator; it’s quite another when that dictator can send a nuclear-armed missile toward your largest cities. Would mutually assured destruction deter Kim Jong-un? We can’t know for sure until the moment of no return.

Trump’s options are no better than Obama’s. Sanctions won’t change minds in Pyongyang, because the leadership pays no political price for hardship imposed on the people, and it helps Kim persuade them that outsiders want to destroy them. China, which fears that a Korean crisis will send refugees streaming across the border, is unlikely to offer much help.

That said, there are plenty of cool heads around President Trump who will make clear that he can’t afford to launch an ultrahigh-risk surprise strike unless it’s clear that every potential alternative has been exhausted. The president’s dramatic warnings are still directed mainly at China in hopes that the president, Xi Jinping will help increase pressure on Pyongyang. He also wants to reassure allies in South Korea and Japan that he understands the severity of the growing threat.

Yet, short of open conflict, there is another important risk to consider. Imagine a best-case scenario. A coup inside North Korea leads to peaceful regime change. China steps in to ensure control of nuclear weapons and material, and Beijing agrees to a plan to reunify Korea’s north and south. North Korean collapse would leave more than 25 million people without a country. Then there’s the question of who will pay to bring the Koreas back together. Evidence suggests Korea’s reunification will be far more expensive than Germany’s. When the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, East Germany’s population was a quarter of West Germany’s, and its per capita income was about one third the West German total. Though separated by the Iron Curtain, trade ties between them were well-developed. By contrast, North Korea’s population is more than half that of South Korea, but its per capita income is less than 5%. The two countries have almost no commercial relationship.

To create anything close to parity of prosperity, reunified Korea will need billions of dollars per year over several decades. And how difficult will it be for millions of profoundly disoriented North Koreans, plucked from the lifeboats of their isolated country, to find work in one of the world’s most technologically advanced economies and societies? What happens to those people if they can’t find work? The world will need answers to these questions before Kim Jong-un can launch a nuclear attack. That day is now closer than anyone outside North Korea would wish.

THERE ARE PLENTY OF COOL HEADS AROUND TRUMP WHO WILL MAKE CLEAR THAT HE CAN’T AFFORD TO LAUNCH AN ULTRAHIGHRISK STRIKE UNLESS EVERY ALTERNATIVE HAS BEEN EXHAUSTED