EU is the flavour of the month

Europe’s changing equations could work well with India

It is no coincidence that Chinese leader Xi Jinping arrived in Europe just a few days behind Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Major governments across the world are assessing the direction the European Union (EU) will go in the coming few years. Three developments have made Europe geopolitically more consequential.

ourtake The first is the coming departure of Britain from the EU. This will and has changed the constellation of power in Brussels. Germany is even more dominant than it was before. And it may now have an effective partner again in France under the reformist presidency of Emmanuel Macron. The second is the widening Atlantic divide. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is now part of a chorus of European leaders openly critical of the United States president, Donald Trump. There is a recognition that Brussels will need to shed its long-standing tradition of riding on the coat-tails of Washington. The third is the broad sense among Europe’s leadership that the rightwing populist wave that had rocked capitals all across the continent is now ebbing. Successive defeats by antiestablishment populists in Austria, the Netherlands and France have calmed European nerves.

Mr Modi’s European tour is partly designed to position India for this new Europe. His three stops — Germany, France and Spain — reflect New Delhi’s sense that these will be the three most important governments in a post-Brexit EU. When it comes to democratic values that is a cornerstone of Brussels’ worldview, India is much closer to Europe than Beijing. Europe’s newfound scepticism about China’s Belt-Road Initiative is a sign this viewpoint is finding traction. India and Europe are hardly destined to cooperate — a lot of work will be needed on both sides. India’s protectionist trade policies are a point of difference. Europe sees itself as a standard-bearer of free trade. The sense Mr Modi’s government is culturally intolerant and thuggish does not help either. India on the other hand will hope Europe starts to see the world in more realistic, power-based terms. The first step in a new India-Europe relationship would be to complete the long-awaited free trade agreement.