Doklam was a potentially dangerous miscalculation

To avoid another fracas, India and China must work on border frameworks

The Doklam border crisis has ended as suddenly as it began. India announced both countries had agreed to disengage their troops from the plateau along the Sino-Bhutan border. Beijing said Indian troops were “retreating”, and that it would continue to patrol the area. The two statements are not contradictory. Patrolling up to a country’s claims area is allowed under the Sino-Indian agreements and will now de facto be applied to the Sino-Bhutanese border too. In effect, its status quo. China’s original sin was the decision to extend a road up to the plateau in violation of the 2012 border agreement. The proof of the pudding, however, will be in the eating. In other words, whether Beijing will seek to change the Doklam status quo in future remains to be seen. One will expect aggressive patrolling and verbal brickbats in the future by both sides. But sound and fury signify nothing. Keeping its troops and workers indoors is what will be the real measure of China’s intentions.

Doklam deserves some introspection on the part of India. Beijing seems to have assumed a passive Indian response to its initial construction efforts. Possibly New Delhi’s failure to respond to the initial Chinese action of demolishing two vacant Indian bunkers was misread. Or Beijing concluded that India would feel constrained about interceding on behalf of the territorial claims of a third country. Either way, there was a miscalculation that was potentially dangerous. The announcement of a withdrawal indicates neither side is interested in a wider conflict. But there needs to be some thought about the fact that their spheres of influence will brush against each other in third countries with increasing frequency. India and China should not see Doklam in terms of point-scoring but rather as a warning of the need for extending their border management framework across other borders as well.