Pak’s ace in poker match with US: Afghan air routes
Islamabad’s last resort could affect the fight against Taliban
WASHINGTON: As bad as President Donald Trump describes US-Pakistani ties today, they can get far worse.
Over 16 years that included hundreds of deadly US drone strikes, Osama bin Laden’s killing on Pakistani soil and accusations Pakistan helps insurgents that kill Americans, the reluctant allies never reached one point of no return: Pakistan closing the air routes to Afghanistan.
It’s an action that could all but cripple the US-backed military fight against the Taliban. It could also be tantamount to Pakistan going to war with the US.
Even if such a step is seen as unlikely by most officials and observers, Pakistan’s ability to shape the destiny of America’s longest war is a reminder of how much leverage the country maintains at a time Trump is suspending hundreds of millions of dollars in military assistance.
“There’s some suggestion that we have all of the cards in our hands,” said Richard Olson, a former US ambassador to Pakistan. “But we don’t. The leverage is strong on the Pakistan side as well and arguably stronger than our side.”
Trump’s re-commitment of US forces to the fight in Afghanistan makes the stakes high for his administration. The top US diplomat for South Asia, Alice Wells, made a low-key visit to Islamabad this week, suggesting both sides want to prevent a breach in ties. Pakistan’s cooperation is needed not only to reduce violence in its northern neighbour. It’s also critical to any hope of a political settlement with the Afghan Taliban after decades of conflict.
Defence secretary Jim Mattis has said the US doesn’t expect Pakistan to cut off supply routes. Even so, the US is seeking out alternatives, a senior official said, without elaborating on what those routes might be.
The official said it would be “very difficult” but not impossible for the US to get military equipment into Afghanistan if the Pakistan route is shut down.
Pakistan has cut overland access before. When a US airstrike killed 24 Pakistani soldiers at the Afghan-Pakistan frontier in late 2011, months after the US commando raid that killed bin Laden, Pakistan blocked border crossings into Afghanistan.
The decision sunk US-Pakistani relations to a post-9/11 low point. Supply trucks that trundle across desert into Afghanistan’s southern Kandahar province or into Nangarhar via the mountainous Khyber Pass ground to a halt. Hundreds of containers shipped from the US or the Gulf were left stranded in Karachi until mid-2012.
For the US, truck and rail costs inflated by about 50%, said David Sedney, a former Pentagon official who organised the alternative northern routes. He said deliveries by air cost three times as much or more.
But the saga, resolved through a U.S. apology, also exposed the limits of Pakistan’s leverage, Sedney said. Pakistan’s own economy was hurt, notably the military-dominated trucking industry. And the Afghan war effort, which was then supporting more than 70,000 US troops, compared
Since closing Pakistan’s airspace would hinder America’s ability to defend its forces in Afghanistan, Olson, the former ambassador, said the US might regard such action as a “casus belli,” or grounds for war. Other former US officials echoed that assessment.