January battle to define Dec war in Rajasthan
AJMER: Ramswarup Lamba, 30, is escorted from his car to the stage, and after the customary wave and introduction, handed over the microphone.
The BJP candidate for the Ajmer Lok Sabha seat fumbles a little before reminding the audience — comprising primarily of Jats, his own community — of the contribution of his father, Sanwar Lal Jat. “He brought water to the villages of Ajmer. I ask for votes as tribute to Sanwar Lal ji.” In a five-minute speech, Lamba repeats this a few more times, before he is lifted off, back to the car, for the next public meeting in another village of Nasirabad assembly segment of Ajmer seat.
Jat’s death has necessitated a fresh contest in the seat. Whoever wins will only get to sit in the Lok Sabha for a little more than a year. And then, depending on whether his party rewards him with a ticket again, he will have to return to the bazaars and villages to contest elections in 2019. It will also make no difference to power equations in Delhi. Conventional wisdom would suggest this election should matter little. Yet, the stakes could not be higher.
By-elections in both Ajmer and Alwar, on January 29, have come to acquire enormous political significance because of their timing and because of what they mean for the state leadership. Both BJP and Congress, led by chief minister Vasundhara Raje and state chief Sachin Pilot respectively, have made it their own election — staking personal prestige, campaigning day in and day out, and spending weeks in constituencies. Both camps agree the outcome will define the mood for the December state assembly polls. It will also, internally, shape power equations within their own parties at a time when Raje and Pilot both face challengers. On the ground in Ajmer, which has more than 1.8 million voters, the primary pivot around which the election is being fought is caste.
HIGH STAKES BATTLE
Pilot likes driving his own car on the campaign trail. After speaking to a largely Muslim gathering in Hathaundi village — he criticises the Raje government for the economic downturn, agrarian distress, and closing down government schools and privatising education, and mocks the Modi government for failing to deliver ₹15 lakh in each account — Pilot hops back in his car.
He begins with a reminder: out of five assembly by-polls in the state so far, the BJP has lost three. “Every election is important. But given how close it is to the assembly election, it would be foolish to say the outcome will have no impact on the political mood of the state. It will set the tone for assembly polls,” he says.
But if it is so crucial, why is he not contesting himself? After all, Pilot represented Ajmer in the Lok Sabha as an MP in 2014 (he lost). “I left the decision to the Congress president. I have to make sure we win all three seats (Ajmer and Alwar parliamentary constituencies, and Mandalgarh assembly seat). The party may have felt I should continue to focus on the state.”
The BJP’s leaders say Pilot got cold feet because he feared losing; others speculate that had he won, it would have meant ceding space in state politics to Ashok Gehlot, who is still eyeing the position of chief minister. But Pilot rejects these theories. He says that he is completely invested in the election. “I have always done what the party has asked me to. This is my election. I am fighting it. In Ajmer, by the end of the campaign, I would have visited more than 1,200 of the 1,580 villages, addressing 35 meetings every day. I have worked as hard in Alwar. I have told the Congress president we will win all three seats and have to deliver.”
If the Congress sees the bypolls as a possible mark of revival, for Raje, it is crucial to consolidate her own position — she has many critics within the Sangh and her own party — and consolidate the position of BJP as the dominant force in the state. In by-polls, the incumbent is generally understood to have an advantage; a loss will send alarm bells ringing. She has spent, in different phases, over a fortnight in Ajmer .
BP Saraswat, Ajmer district president of BJP, knows how crucial these polls are. “Congress had made the Dholpur assembly by election a prestige battle last year. In a seat in which we had come third in 2013, we won decisively. Pilot then disappeared for a while. This election is important too. But they will suffer the same fate.If we win, the cadre will get a boost. And if we lose, there is no doubt it means the cadre will have to work harder for 2018.”