BJP’S ALLIANCE CONUNDRUM
The move by Telugu Desam Party’s ministers to quit the Modi cabinet brings the spotlight back on the BJP’s relationship with some of its allies. The BJP has a majority in the Lok Sabha on its own and can survive without any support. Yet, as the 2019 Lok Sabha election draws closer, the relationship between the NDA allies could have a bearing on the poll outcome. Here is how the BJP maintains a fine balance with some of its major alliance partners.
Telugu Desam Party
Bond: BJP’s largest ally from the south, it is the dominant player in Andhra Pradesh, a state with 25 Lok Sabha seats. An alliance between the TDP and the BJP helped the two and it won 17 out of 25 parliamentary seats Fissures: The TDP is upset with the BJP-led government’s refusal to grant special category status to Andhra Pradesh, a demand that was also made by the opposition YSR Congress Party. The BJP’s organisational aggression, too, has the TDP feeling uneasy.
Shiromani Akali Dal
One of the oldest allies of the BJP. The SAD has a grip over the rural areas of Punjab, while the BJP is big in urban centres. They share common views on several strategic issues. The alliance won 6 out of 13 Lok Sabha seats in 2014
Fissures: The SAD is uneasy with the new order of the BJP, which reluctantly accepted the junior partner’s status. It is unhappy how the coalition is being managed by the BJP. It expected the get the NDA convener’s post after the JD(U) walked out of NDA in 2013.
Shiv Sena
Bond: Oldest ally of the BJP and a formidable force of Maharashtra, which accounts for 48 Lok Sabha seats. The ideology of ‘Hindutva’ also binds the two. They have remained together to keep rivals Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party out of power. Together, they won 41 Lok Sabha seats in 2014
Fissures: Sena has announced it will contest the 2019 election without BJP as partner. The two contested the 2014 assembly and 2017 municipal election separately but came together after the polls. Sena is worried about BJP’s growing stature.
Rashtriya Lok Samata Party
The alliance with BJP is part of the outreach by PM Narendra Modi and Amit Shah towards other backward communities of Bihar. The BJP-LJP-RLSP alliance won 31 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 Fissures: RLSP chief and junior HRD minister Upendra Kushwaha is not comfortable with BJP’s pact with Nitish Kumar, a fellow Kurmi leader from Bihar. The RJD joined a human chain programme by RLSP in Patna in January.
J&K Peoples Democratic Party
Bond: PDP and BJP formed a coalition government in 2014 after falling short of majority. Their support base is religiously and ideologically divergent, but they supplement each other. The PDP has base in Kashmir Valley and the saffron party in Jammu. They won 3 seats each in the 2014 Lok Sabha election Fissures: An FIR against army personnel over death of 2 civilians in Shopian has brought the two allies faces to face. CM Mehbooba Mufti has refused to backtrack, and the BJP has openly opposed the move.
Janata Dal (United)
Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar united in July 2017, three years after the JD(U) leader walked out of the NDA. The two have developed a personal bond over the last one year. Nitish was one of the main opposition leaders to support demonetisation
Fissures: The two parties are putting up a united face after government formation in Bihar, but distribution of seats in 2019 LS election will be difficult. JD(U) was NDA’s big brother in Bihar during its earlier stint, but now has only 2 Lok Sabha MPs as compared to BJP’s 22.