Erdogan’s win is not good news
Turkey is now just a subsidiary of the Russia-Iran axis
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rightwing coalition has won another parliamentary majority, renewing his presidential mandate. But the results, combined with a referendum he won last year, will lead to a new governmental structure in which the prime ministership will be abolished, the president will have power over judicial appointments and extraordinary powers to rule by decree. His victory is not good news either for his country or for the world. When Mr Erdogan first came to power, he was acclaimed for synthesising a new political narrative merging conservative Islamism with a secular constitution. His foreign policy sought a “zero problems” relationship with his neighbours. Turkey’s was seen as among the brightest stars of the emerging economies.
Today, his vision is a dark and dangerous mirror image of this earlier promise. When the Arab Spring toppled regimes around the Levant, Mr Erdogan formed an alliance with many of the rebel groups, whether in Egypt or Syria. He picked a fight with Israel to enhance his standing with the Arab street. At one point, his “neo-Ottoman” alliance included Egypt, Gaza and it seemed, Syria. These dreams of empire eventually foundered in Syria where Turkey’s plans failed to materialise. In the run up to the elections, Mr Erdogan portrayed himself as defending Turkey from external enemies. His zero-problem neighbourhood was now a zero-friend neighbourhood, and largely because of his own machinations. Its economy is now heading off a cliff with the currency depreciating and a balance of payments crisis looming.
Fortunately, Turkey is now far less able to cause mischief in its region than before. However, much damage has already been done. Turkey has been reduced to a subsidiary of the Russia-Iran axis that dominates the Levant and Mesopotamia. Mr Erdogan has centralised so much power inside Turkey that he may rule the country for another decade. In his victory speech, he spoke of Turkey being an example to the rest of the world. That was true over a decade ago. Now, Turkey is a warning of the perils of personal hubris and overweening national ambition.