An insurgency in expansion mode
The attack on China’s consulate is more about Balochistan
India has joined other countries in condemning the militant attack on the Chinese consulate in Karachi. New Delhi has termed it as a terror attack. However, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), which has claimed credit for the attack, is not recognised as a terrorist organisation by India. The BLA had attempted to blow
ourtake up a busload of Chinese workers. Other
Baloch groups have targeted the increasing Chinese presence in their province. The rival Baloch Liberation Front has carried out attacks against Chinese construction projects. The real issue is not terrorism, or even China’s controversial China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. It is Islamabad’s decades of repression of the Baloch.
Balochistan is experiencing its fifth wave of rebellion against the Pakistani government since Independence. The present one has been no more successful than any previous insurgency. There are three new elements to the rebellion: One, the insurgency has begun attracting a new urbanised, de-tribalised Baloch. Two, the Baloch nationalist narrative today merges resentment against Islamabad with the massive Chinese economic presence in their province. Finally, though the mainstream Baloch insurgent groups retain a secular nationalist outlook, some have become Islamicised and may colour the future nature of the conflict. With Balochistan also becoming a battleground for Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan and Iran, ideological extremism will become increasingly important.
China has claimed its investments will help make the Baloch and their province more prosperous. But so long as thousands of Chinese workers and Pakistani soldiers are the human face of the corridor it will be seen as instrument of oppression. A sustainable solution would be for Beijing to persuade Islamabad to provide Balochistan greater political autonomy, giving the Baloch a greater say in how and where outside investments take place. There is no sign that sort of empowerment is on the cards. Which is why the Chinese should brace themselves for a backlash that will become increasingly violent and, eventually, extract a human cost Beijing may find unpalatable for its own public.