PM Modi may not be decisive factor for MP

SHAHDOL/JABALPUR/SAGAR/MORENA/ GWALIOR: “Yeh Modi ji ka chunav nahin hai [this is not Narendra Modi’s election],” says a government official in Madhya Pradesh’s Morena district five days before the region goes to the polls on November 28.

In almost every state election since 2014 where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been an important player, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has come out either as the opener who has set the stage for a successful innings, or as a late-order batsman who has swung the match for his team. His strike rate has been high.

The Madhya Pradesh elections could well be the first where either Modi is not a prominent factor. The focus is primarily on state leaders. The BJP chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan enjoys goodwill. But it is not clear whether this will translate to support for local candidates battling anti-incumbency.

On the other side of the fence, the Congress has three leaders. Anecdotal evidence from travels across Malwa-Nimar, Vindhya, Mahakoshal, and GwaliorChambal suggests that Jyotiraditya Scindia is the most popular. This is true for both, the wider public as well as the younger voter who may have earlier been with the BJP.

The state president, Kamal Nath, is less widely known in the public sphere since his politics has largely revolved around Delhi and his seat, Chhindwara, rather than Bhopal. And the least popular but most experienced in state politics, Digvijay Singh, has been kept in the deep background because his term in office is associated with poor governance.

But striking, from the perspective of 2019, are the responses that Modi evokes — indifference, support and criticism. There is one thing in common in all three: the Prime Minister is now being judged for his performance, not his intent and announcements.

LOCAL VERSUS GENERAL

At Modi’s Shahdol rally on November 16, two men came on their motorcycle from a neighbouring constituency to hear him speak. They were not particularly interested in chief minister Chouhan’s speech and appeared to have made up their mind to vote for the Congress. But they were keen to hear what Modi had to say.

One of them, Dileep, a 45-yearold farmer, said: “He is the country’s prime minister and so we wanted to come.” Was his speech enough to convince them to vote for BJP in the state polls? “No. He will not run the government in Bhopal. This is not his election.”

Back in the Morena government office, a local official said, “Voters are very aware now. They know the distinction between a local and general election, an election for Bhopal and an election for Delhi.” And that is why what happens on results day, December 11 cannot be extrapolated into what will eventually happen in 2019 national elections.

Many credit Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his attempt at rural transformation. Across villages, even his most strident critics admit that the government has worked on four key schemes — rural housing, rural roads, toilets and distribution of gas cylinders.

Bijay Chaudhary in Nauroli village in Sagar district tells fellow Dalits that this shows the BJP has worked for the poor. Dharmendra Thakur, a local BJP councillor in the district’s Khurai constituency, claims that welfare delivery is Modi’s biggest contribution. Narayan Singh Yadav, a contractor in Morena, says that Modi has changed life in rural areas. In Boyera and Gopalpura villages in Jhabua, tribals acknowledge that money has come into their accounts for housing.

But there are also robust voices critiquing Modi from across communities.

Satyendra Pariyar of Narsinghpur’s Kathgodiya village says, “A gas cylinder is now more than ₹1,000 and so people are returning to their old ways of cooking. For houses, even though the government has promised ₹150,000, not all the money comes into the account. There is still corruption. And can you really make toilets for ₹12,000 now?”

Amit, a driver in Bhopal, says the prime minister is actually taking away votes from the BJP this time around.

“He did demonetisation. He did GST [Goods and Services Tax]. Chouhan has to carry the baggage of his unpopular policies. The Centre has done little for us who belong to the lower middle class.”

THE MADHYA PRADESH ELECTIONS COULD WELL BE THE FIRST WHERE MODI IS NOT THE ONLY PROMINENT FACTOR THE FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON STATE LEADERS