THE IMPORTANCE OF SETTING THE AGENDA
Narendra Modi defined the agenda in 2013-2014. He made the election about the Congress’ alleged corruption; the nepotism that marked the elite political culture of Delhi; the policy paralysis that had made India suffer economically; the weakness that marked India’s responses to terror; and the years of underdevelopment under one party’s rule.
Modi also made it about hope. The “achhe din” slogan was a clever — arguably, one of the most clever — slogans in Indian electoral history. He promised a better future, a clean government, strides in economic development, jobs, a stronger state and assertion of Hindu culturalreligious pride.
The Congress was on the defensive. Each day, its political managers sought to counter charges, pointing to gaps in corruption allegations, highlighting through data the achievements of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) on rural welfare, and foreign policy achievements. It did not work.
Two months before the 2019 election, this glance at what happened five years ago is a good reminder of the importance of agenda setting in politics. In the electoral sphere, micro constituency calculations, alliances, caste, resources, candidates, and organisational strength matter.
But so does the big picture, especially in a country with such a large and fragmented electorate. With the power of media, and the increasing penetration of social media, the big messages get conveyed instantly. And so a voter in a remote village in Meghalaya and a voter in a tribal district in Chhattisgarh and a voter in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh have access to the same kind of information about the national situation.
The big picture today is that the opposition is setting the agenda. The BJP is increasingly on the defensive. There is a caveat, of course. It is always easier to make allegations when in opposition; it is always more difficult to make a case for oneself when in power. But despite this, the narrative wars are now increasingly favouring the opposition.
Just sample the recent allegations on the Rafale deal. Irrespective of one’s views on the manner in which the deal was negotiated — you could believe it bypassed procedures and that it smacks of cronyism or you could believe that it was essential for national security and reflected decisiveness — the fact is that, every day, an aggressive media and the opposition were bringing in new charges. And each day, the government — by resorting to technical nuances — was having to show that all is actually above board. Yes, the government has cited both the court and the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) report to vindicate its position. And yes, it is still not clear whether Rafale is indeed an electoral issue that could swing votes. But the fact that Rafale became such a major talking point is itself the success of the opposition.
Or take the jobs narrative. The leaked report on the jobs data gave tremendous ammunition to the opposition and lent credence to its charge that demonetisation crippled employment, especially in the informal sector. The government — through the Niti Aayog — put out a weak defence on why the data was not comparable to the past and had not been processed. But few bought the explanation. Again, it is no one’s case that the government did not recognise unemployment as a challenge. Its various initiatives — from Make in India to Start up India to Skill India to MUDRA — stemmed from a recognition that the government has to create jobs. But over the past two years, the opposition’s narrative that not only did the government fail to create enough jobs, but its policies may have even eroded jobs, has gained traction.
Or take agriculture. It was the opposition’s aggression on farmers suffering from low incomes and the government’s MSP hike making little difference on the ground that helped catalyse a potent electoral constituency of angry farmers across caste lines. The results were visiaspects”. ble in December in the state polls. The government was first in denial about the crisis — pointing to its various schemes as proof of intent. But the electoral wake up call resulted in the budget announcement of an income support scheme. Whether it is enough to quell the discontent is yet to be seen. Once again, the agrarian distress is not solely of this government’s making; there is no easy policy solution to it either.
The point here is that despite overwhelming political dominance, the government is on the backfoot as far as issues are concerned. It has its own narrative of course: strong leadership, rural welfare programmes, instituting structural changes to clean up the economy, and low inflation. But in terms of daily headlines and debates, it is the issues raised by the opposition which are becoming dominant. The budget did help the government’s case but has been overtaken by other events.
While this should worry the ruling establishment, the opposition should not be too gleeful just yet. Unlike the Modi of 2014, who capitalised on both anger and hope, the opposition is banking primarily on anger against the BJP. There is disillusionment yes, but whether there is anger across classes and castes is not clear. More importantly, the opposition’s agenda is still not marked by hope; their agenda for the future is unclear; there are different forces with different interests and pulls and pressures; the national anchor — in the form of the Congress — remains weak.
What happens in the election is a different matter. But for now, in terms of agenda setting for 2019, Modi and the BJP need to steal the initiative back. The opposition has the edge.