Exit polls predict victory for NDA; over to May 23

BJP, allies poised to form next govt, UPA gaining but still way behind

NEWDELHI: As the 2019 Lok Sabha elections drew to a close on Sunday evening, eight separate exit polls, conducted by different polling agencies, commissioned by different media houses, predicted that Narendra Modi was best positioned to return as India’s Prime Minister.

They, however, differed on the numbers, and the range hovered from a high of 316 for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to a low of 202. For the Congress, the numbers ranged from a low of 46 seats to a high of 107.

A caveat is essential here. These are exit polls, and exit polls have had a history of being inaccurate in terms of exact seat predictions. HT did not commission an independent exit poll, had no access to raw data, and cannot verify the methodological rigour and results of the separate polls. HT has also not attempted a poll of polls since that is not possible without having access to the methodology, sample representativeness, and raw data of all existing polls before drawing an overall conclusion.

But if the exit poll numbers are credible, they throw up four different scenarios. The first is of Modi’s return as PM with the BJP having a majority on its own and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies supplementing its strength in Parliament.

Four polls suggest this scenario. News 24-Today’s Chanakya has given the NDA 336-364 seats, with the BJP anywhere between 286 and 314.

The India Today-Axis poll has predicted an overwhelming 339365 seats for the NDA, with 293316 to the BJP alone.

CONTINUED ON P8