Holder, Shankar can surprise with swing
A lot has been said about “English conditions” in the build up to this World Cup with the image it conjures—grey skies, green pitches, the ball swinging and seaming with batsmen needing to dig in and fight. However, that has not been the case. Since the change in regulations before the 2015 World Cup, England has been the fastest scoring host country— the pitches there are the flattest.
That’s partly driven by England’s excellent batting record, but also because the pitches have offered bowlers significantly less than they used to. Over the past four years, there has been less seam movement. New ball swing in England is a myth in modern cricket. Since the 2015 World Cup, England has seen around 0.71° of movement in the first 10 overs of an ODI. It’s enough to trouble batsmen, but it’s no more than in majority of other countries; in fact, it’s less than the global average of 0.74° in those first 10 overs.
The bowlers who have swung the new ball substantially in England have been the absolute best. Tim Southee and Trent Boult found prodigious swing in the 2015 series that immediately followed the World Cup. Mitchell Starc that summer found considerable sideways movement. The only England bowler to consistently move the new ball in England is David Willey, who bowls at such a pace that he needs to move the ball to be a threat. Essentially, the idea that you can rock up in England with a classic swing bowler and just hoop it around corners with the white ball does not hold true.
DROP IN NEW BALL MOVEMENT
The old ball doesn’t tend to swing either. In overs 11-40, ODIs in England have seen an average of around 0.6° swing every year since the last World Cup, consistently seeing a slight drop from the new ball movement.
An average of 0.66° swing in the second powerplay is higher than the global average of 0.64°, albeit only marginally. However, it does show that old ball swing is still a weapon in England, as much if not more than it is in countries one associates more with reverse swing.
Among the big contenders coming to England, a few stand out as potential swingers. Sri Lanka’s Suranga Lakmal is one of the elite swing bowlers, while Nathan Coulter-Nile is evidence that Australia’s best hope of success is their excellent attack.
Perhaps the surprise package could be West Indies all-rounder Jason Holder. The Windies skipper has seemingly added swing to his armoury. The degree of swing he’s found with the new ball— from a reasonable sample size of 11 innings—is by far the best. His team does hold particularly high hopes of reaching the semi-finals, but if he can deliver, Holder could give his batting line-up a chance of delivering a few shocks.
For India, the biggest swinger of the new ball in the last 18 months has been Vijay Shankar. His average swing is 0.8° in overs 1-10, and whilst he has had the benefit of bowling in New Zealand, he’s also had to bowl in Australia. Many have mocked chief selector MSK Prasad’s use of the phrase “three-dimensional” while explaining Shankar’s selection over Ambati Rayudu, but this could be exactly what he was talking about. Shankar may not be the best bowler across all conditions, but is as capable of finding movement as Bhuvneshwar Kumar.