The tectonic shift in Maharashtra
Modi-Shah-Fadnavis succeeded where even Indira Gandhi failed — in ruling over the Marathas
Acurious election, littered with many firsts, is taking place in Maharashtra. A 49-year-old Brahmin from Nagpur appears set to be re-elected for a second five-year term in a Maratha-dominated polity. A 29-year-old member of the Thackeray family is actually contesting an election. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has pushed the original sons-of-the-soil regional force, Shiv Sena (SS), to a secondary position in its long-standing alliance. The ageing Sharad Pawar, Maharashtra’s tallest leader for nearly 50 years, is fighting hard to keep his family and the National Congress Party (NCP) together. And the Congress, once Maharashtra’s premier political party, is now battling for relevance.
Indeed, if there is one state that perhaps best exemplifies the decline of the Congress and the rise of the BJP, it is Maharashtra. This, after all, is a state where the combined Congress-NCP vote share has never gone below 30%. This isn’t Uttar Pradesh, where the Congress is a single-digit party, nor a state which has seen a Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party-style political revolution. This is a state where the non-Congress opposition has never won a majority on its own. In 1995, the BJP-Sena came to power with the support of independents and rebels, and in 2014, the two parties came together only after the results to form an alliance government. Maharashtra is the last Congress citadel that is now in danger of totally crumbling.
The first blow was struck when the Hindutva alliance in the early 1990s legitimised the politics of religious polarisation, especially in urban Maharashtra. The second breach came from within, when Pawar, in 1999, broke away for a second time from the Congress, and took away a number of younger Congress leaders, especially from western Maharashtra, with him. The third break came when the social churning among non-Maratha OBC groups found space within the BJP and Shiv Sena, especially in the more backward regions of the state like Vidarbha and Marathwada. The fourth jolt came with increased Dalit assertion, especially among empowered young Dalits, unwilling to be co-opted by traditional elites. The final nail is being driven in 2019 with the Maratha leadership deserting the Congress for the BJP.
The Marathas were at the apex of the power pyramid, a dominant agrarian caste that used its numerical majority to monopolise power and resources for decades. All battles for supremacy were fought within the Congress’ Maratha factions with limited outside interference. Even the mighty Indira Gandhi was unable to rein in the warring Maratha groups. Her attempts to impose chief ministers like AR Antulay never fully succeeded. Now it seems that the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah-Devendra Fadnavis troika may succeed where even the Indira-led Congress failed in ruling over the Marathas.
The crafty Fadnavis has followed a carrot-and-stick policy in dealing with the Maratha regional chieftains. Giving in to the vociferous demand for Maratha reservations was a key step in wooing the younger generation of Marathas who feared they were losing out in a competitive job market. The carrot of reservation was followed by the stick of systematically targeting the financial clout of local Maratha leaders who might offer political opposition. At the core of the Maratha financial muscle is the vast network of co-operatives, which have been tightly controlled through a web of patron-client relationships. The “cash-and-carry” business model of the cooperative sector has seen many sugar cooperatives being pushed to the brink and run foul of the law. With the withdrawal of State protection offered under the Congress rule, the Fadnavis government was able to send a firm message to the sugar barons and their henchmen: Fall in line or else. It should come as no surprise that several of the Maratha leaders who have switched to the BJP are those with a number of pending cases against their institutions.
In a sense, the Fadnavis-led government in Maharashtra, much like the Modi regime in Delhi, has shown itself to be the “new” Congress, able to wield the levers of power with dexterity and a degree of ruthlessness. But where the Congress expended far too much of its political capital in internal squabbling, the Fadnavis government has shown a singleminded determination in using its tenure to demolish the opposition through artful political management. The Sena has been tamed, and the Congress-NCP is far too compromised by past deeds. Moreover, where the Congress high command did not empower state leaders, the BJP has given the likes of Fadnavis plenty of autonomy and authority. In a personalitydriven election ecosystem, the BJP has successfully nurtured a viable regional face. Which is why, despite no shortage of local issues from water scarcity to non- performing legislators, the BJP is in pole position to sweep the state. If the 2019 national election was the TIMO election (there is Modi only), the Maharashtra may well be the TIFO mandate (there is Fadnavis only).
Post-script: At a recent media conclave, I asked Fadnavis why the BJP was embracing the very political leaders it once accused of corruption. “Show me one leader we have taken who has an ED case against him!” was his clear-cut response. Forget other cases of corruption, the Enforcement Directorate seems to be the new benchmark while determining political untouchability.
Rajdeep Sardesai is a senior journalist and an author. His new book 2019: How Modi Won India will be released next month The views expressed are personal