Mapping Shiv Sena’s dynamic with new big brother BJP
MUMBAI/THANE/NASIK: It is early morning and Mumbai’s famous Shivaji Park in Dadar is crowded with joggers and cricket enthusiasts. Sahib Rao works in finance in a private sector firm. He has just finished his walk and opens up when asked about the upcoming polls. “This falls within the Mahim assembly seat and is a traditional stronghold of the Shiv Sena. The Sena Bhawan is right down the road. We are all supporters of the Sena. And I think Devendra Fadnavis has done a good job. The alliance will comfortably win.”
Rao acknowledges the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has become the bigger party but says the Sena is today stronger than it was in 2014. “It has kept its traditional position, but it has evolved with the times. Its base is intact and its connect with the young, with migrants, with even Muslims has grown.”
Rao’s views on the possible outcome reflects the broader political consensus in the state. But it is his view of the Sena and its changing nature which is intriguing. Has the Shiv Sena — associated with anti-minority rhetoric, anti-migrant positions, and violence — actually changed? What is its current strategy of mobilisation on the ground? How is its changing dynamic with the BJP playing out? Indeed, these three elements — of a possible ideological shift; electoral tactics and sources of strength; and a complex alliance framework — mark the churn in the Sena.
The symbol of a possible change underway in the Sena is Aditya Thackeray — the first from the family to contest elections; a young leader known for causes like environment.
But is he just a token face, while the core remains the same? Priyanka Chaturvedi, deputy leader of the party, argues the Sena is undergoing a transition which is in keeping with the aspirations of a new generation. “At one point, what Balasaheb fought for — recognition of identity and assertion — was valid. But that goal has been achieved. Resentment against outsiders has subsided. And aspirations have changed. The young want economic opportunities and jobs. Aditya is a millennial; he understands this.”
Bhushan Khanot, a party supporter in Matunga, defends the party’s original line. “Look at what governments in Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, or even Gujarat have promised — reservations in jobs for locals. Balasaheb [Thackeray] said it 50 years ago.” This, he adds, does not mean the party is against migrants any more and cites examples of outreach programmes for Gujaratis, North Indians, and South Indians in the polls.
Insiders claim that in engineering a makeover, a silent but effective role has been played by Uddhav Thackeray, who had been dismissed when compared to his more militant cousin, Raj Thackeray, when the party split. “Uddhav acted as a bridge between traditionalists and the more modern ideas,” says an insider closely associated with the party’s campaign, who wished to remain unnamed.
But elements of extremist ideological legacy persist. The party’s Haryana unit gave a ticket to the man accused of having shot the former Jawaharlal Nehru Union student activist, Umar Khalid. The party claims that the leadership had no idea about the move and a clean up of state units elsewhere is in the offing.
What do those who have often been the objects of Shiv Sena’s ire feel? In Dharavi, the Sena is pitted against the Congress. Yasmin Sheikh, a contractor in his early 30s, says he is confused about whether to vote for the Congress — which has traditionally won the seat — or the All India Majlise-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) of Asaduddin Owaisi. But despite being a possible AIMIM voter, Sheikh is surprisingly positive about the Sena. “They are ten times better than the BJP. If we go to Sena’s local leaders, they help.” But weren’t they at the forefront of communal violence? Sheikh says that was two decades ago. “Things have changed. I won’t vote for them but I can talk to them.”
THE BATTLE ON GROUND
It is within this backdrop of an ideological churn that the Sena has had to grapple with the reality of the electoral contest. It is fighting 124 of the 288 assembly seats. It is relying on its organisational strength; traditional supporters who still praise the Sena’s help in accessing government services; and newer voters who may be driven by Aditya Thackeray’s appeal.
But on the ground, depending on particularities of seats, the Sena faces distinct challenges. It has relied both on new faces and old families. Take two examples.
In Igatpuri constituency of Nashik district, the Sena’s candidate is Nirmala Gavit, a two-term Congress legislator from the seat.
Her prospects rest on a fine balance. She will lose older votes. Junaid, a local mechanic in a town bazaar says, “We won’t vote for her now that she is in the Sena. We will stick to Congress.” But she will also gain votes. “Tribals, a section of Dalits, OBCs, our old organisational vote and her personal vote will combine. We will win,” says a local Sena activist.