Maharashtra’s mandate is for the BJP. But the road ahead is hard
Fadnavis will have to manage the Sena, partner and critic rolled into one, and deliver on projects
The last time a political party got more than 100 seats in Maharashtra assembly twice in a row was in 1990. The state has never had two consecutive terms of a non-Congress government. Both those data points changed on Thursday.
Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis led his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to a second consecutive seat tally of 100- plus, in the process ensuring that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will continue to keep the Congress out of power in the state.
No leader in the state today, except Fadnavis, has the ability to get their party past the 100-seat mark. Yet, the narrative since the Maharashtra results has been as if the BJP has lost in a big way. Perhaps it is symptomatic of India’s political commentary in recent years where a narrower-than-expected win for the BJP is considered equivalent to a stellar rise of the Opposition and an effective defeat for the BJP.
Once the dust settles on the fact that the NDA will effectively have support of about 175 Members of Legislative Assemblies — just 10 below the 2014 mark, still 30 more than the halfway mark, but 40 below what the general expectations were — Maharashtra will see an encore of the previous five years.
The BJP will have to work with a belligerent Shiv Sena, an ally and an opponent rolled into one, to ensure that the government lasts full five years. The Shiv Sena will repeatedly signal that it can go with the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) to form the government, but, in all likelihood, won’t, for that will alienate its core support base. The
Shiv Sena has lost ground in a big way in western Maharashtra and the Mumbai region — its historical mainstays. If it signals an alliance with the Congress and the NCP, it may only help the BJP strengthen in the long run.
This uneasy truce will reflect in the day-today functioning of the state government. The Shiv Sena will likely get absolute control over a few ministries. It will bargain for the chief minister post itself for half the term, but may settle for the deputy chief minister post, given that, in the final tally, it is just two seats more than the NCP. Fadnavis will have to continue to push his ideas with Sena being the first line of opposition and critique.
Things will not be too different for the Congress and the NCP either. The Congress has held on to its isolated strongholds in Marathwada, Vidarbha and western Maharashtra region. But there is no cohesive story going for it yet. The party is a long way from installing aneffectivestate-levelleadershipandrebuilding a cadre base.
The NCP certainly gained in its traditional stronghold of western Maharashtra, with a defiant rain-soaked Sharad Pawar managing to retain and consolidate his Maratha vote base. Several big name NCP defectors to the BJP and the Shiv Sena lost, while the unfancied NCP candidates won. But beyond this limited surge, the fact remains that the party, even at its peak, doesn’t have the wherewithal to finish in top two.
The Fadnavis government, which perhaps inadvertently helped in the mini-NCP resurgence before the election, moving on several judicial cases in consonance with orders from judiciary, will continue to pursue these cases, given they have already got politicised. The government will have another shot to chip at the NCP ecosystem of cooperatives. With several top NCP leaders nearing the end of their careers, and their next of kin unable to hold on to the family aura, the NCP will progressively face an uphill task of maintaining its clout in the state.
There is a lot for Fadnavis himself to ponder in his moment of personal win. The BJP went down from 44 to 30 seats in Vidarbha, and 17 to 13 seats in north Maharashtra. The party could not win a single seat in the Lok Sabha areas of Amravati and Hatkanangle. The NDA fared poorly in other areas too, winning just one of the six assembly seats in each of the Lok Sabha areas of Bhandara Gondia, Kolhapur, Latur, Palghar, Shirdi and Shirur. The urban pockets of Pune and Nagpur have taken a hit as well, though the party has emerged strong in Mumbai, Thane and Nashik.
The BJP will also have to make its local bodies administration more efficient and compassionate. The road conditions, flash floods and the urban infrastructure certainly cost the party in western Maharashtra — both in terms of credibility as well as votes. The rebel candidates of both the BJP as well as the Shiv Sena also cost the NDA a few seats.
The BJP campaign itself was quite positive. Although the media and social media continuously highlighted the talk about nationalism and national security, Fadnavis did talk a lot about his own work. The narrative however got overshadowed. This is similar to the December 2018 Madhya Pradesh election, where the party was perceived to have ignored local issues.
While Fadnavis will remain the top leader in Maharashtra in the years to come, he may have to personalise and customise the messaging for several parts of the state. In the second term, he may have to more aggressively push for the completion of some of the signature projects on transportation, water management and irrigation launched in the first term, to showcase tangible benefits to the people.
The top challenges for Fadnavis remain the same as in 2014 — doubling down on development plank, managing the Shiv Sena, and pushing judicial action in political scams while maintaining law and order.
Another hard grind awaits him in Maharashtra.