CRITICAL LEARNINGS FOR INDIA
Trends in other parts of the world hold crucial lessons for India in what may only be early stages of the spread here
SHARP JUMP THREAT REAL
Outbreak trends from China, where the virus had already spread to hundreds before officials figured out its real nature, and from nations such as Iran and Italy – where a lack of oversight is believed to have fanned the epidemic – show that the outbreak turns into a runaway epidemic once it crosses a particular threshold
TESTING IS KEY
According to an analysis of data released by Chinese authorities, a lag in testing meant that only about a fraction of active patients were being identified any given day. On Jan 23, for example, there were 444 cases in China but the date of onset collated later showed there could be as many as 12,000 people with the disease till that day
HOSPITALS FACE A DELUGE
Hubei, ground zero of the outbreak in China, recorded a far higher proportion of deaths. China locked down other cities soon after. Consequently, 4.8% people died there, compared to 0.82% in rest of China. This suggests Hubei’s health care was overwhelmed and deaths could have been reduced by a factor of 10
SOCIAL DISTANCING REQUIRED
The case load in Hubei, which accounted for 84% of China’s cases till March 2, also underscores the need for rapid measures. In rest of China, widespread lockdowns of cities were announced even before infections spread there. This helped keep the epidemic grow to the proportion it had in the Hubei province